Gloomy outlook for war of attrition; Current U.S. and NATO strategy, as well as probable Biden loss in 2024, point toward Ukrainian defeat
The reality behind the illusions
Sascha Lehnartz paints a sobering picture of the current stalemate in the Russian war against Ukraine1 which is consistent with recent declarations by Ukraine’s top military leader.
UPDATE : Daniel Hannan, writing in The Telegraph on December 9,, describes how Russia is winning the war, while still holding out hope that the situation might be reversed.2
We are now witnessing the consequences of a failed U.S. and NATO strategy for winning the Ukraine war. There have been a number of strategic errors, which we have duly chronicled and criticized over the last 21 months.
These strategic failures include the following:
First, the failure to ramp up war production to meet the requirements of a long war of attrition, pitting Russia with over 145 million people and three times the population of Ukraine (44 million), and a much larger industrial base, against a much smaller Ukraine.
Russia has moved to a wartime economy. The West has not. The Ukraine is at a considerable disadvantage given its limited supply of munitions, especially artillery shells.3
Second, the failure of the U.S. and NATO countries to supply advanced weapons, or to do so only after immense hesitation and delay, has prevented Ukraine from taking advantage of its significant victories in the second half of 2022 in the Kharkiv and the Kherson regions. These delays led to a continual postponement of the much-vaunted Ukrainian counter-offensive in 2023, which allowed the Russians time
to build formidable defenses in the South including the intensive mining of territory Ukrainians had to traverse to make any advances.
Third, President Joe Biden’s fear of Putin’s nuclear threats led him to become, in effect, the enforcer of Putin”s “red lines”, including the prohibition of furnishing weapons capable of hitting targets in Russia proper, or hitting targets in Russia with Western-supplied weapons.4 Other “red lines”, though some were ultimately transgressed, prevented the timely supply of HIMARS artillery units, ATACMS artillery rockets with a range of 180 miles, F-16 fighter aircraft, and the supply of German Taurus cruise missiles with a range of 500 km or over 300 miles.
Moreover, even when long-range ATTACMS were finally transferred to Ukraine, the numbers were very small and they were of the cluster-bomb variety which were not capable of destroying the Kerch Strait Bridge or sinking Russian ships in Sevastopol or elsewhere in the Black Sea or the Sea of Azov.
In short, the Western allies supplied Ukraine with weapons that helped it avoid defeat at the hands of the Russians, but in a manner which so restricted the supply and use of modern weapons that Ukraine was effectively reduced to fighting the forces of an invading superpower with one hand tied behind its back.
The West provided enough weapons to avoid defeat but not enough to achieve victory.
Fourth, the U.S. and the West failed to press the nations of the Global South to join the international sanctions regimes introduced by the U.S.,the EU, and other countries. As a result, Russia has been able to circumvent what might otherwise have been crippling international sanctions5
There have been other strategic failures. The above list is far from exhaustive.
A final variable which may have a decisive impact on thev outcome of the war has been growing Republican opposition in the U.S. to continuing aid for Ukraine, particularly in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.
This opposition may be overcome in the short term, but it points toward a much graver problem, the increasing likelihood that Donald Trump will be reelected in November 2024 if Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee6 This means there us a good chance that American military and economic aid may be greatly curtailed in 2025, if not sooner.
The possible establishment of a dictatorship by Donald Trump if he returns to the White House is a growing concern7 Such a breakdown in the rule of law in the United States would further complicate prospects for future aid to Ukraine even over the longer term.
The Israeli-Gaza war has distracted attention from the deteriorating and increasingly dire situation in Ukraine. Moreover, American leaders have long proceeded under the influence of powerful illusions in making decisions regarding Ukraine8
They must now take a fresh look at the harsh realities of the situation as it exists today.
Given the strategic failures which have led to the current situation, a full-fledged strategic review at the highest levels is urgently needed.
If the U.S. and NATO countries continue to follow their current strategy, catastrophic failure is likely to ensue.
James Rowles )is a former Lecturer on Law at Harvard Law School and professor of international law at other universities.
See,
1) Sascha Lehnartz, “Hat Kiew schon verloren?” Die Welt, den 3. Dezember 2023.
2) Sascha Lehnartz, “Has Kiev already lost?” Die Welt, December 3, 2023.
Daniel Hannan, “Putin’s Russia is closing in on a devastating victory. Europe’s foundations are trembling; Kyiv’s counter-offensive has ended in failure. This could be Nato’s Suez moment,'” The Telegraph, December 9, 2023 (5:03 pm).
See, e.g., “Ukraine War, November 21, 2023: Munitions for a long-term war of attrition,” The Trenchant Observer,November 20, 2023.
James Rowles, “The crazy chessboard Biden has set up forcing Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind its back,” Trenchant Observations, October 1, 2023.
See 3) Mikhail Zygar, “In Russia, the shift in public opinion is unmistakable,” Washington Post, November 28, 2023 (7:29 p.m. EST).
See,
1)Tony Diver, “Exclusive: ‘Bidenomics’ failing to win electorate support in battleground states; The second instalment of the Telegraph’s 2024 swing state tracker project reveals the president is trailing behind Trump on the economy,” The Telegraph, December 2, 2023 (12:00 pm).
2) James Rowles, “Irrational belief in rationality: Democrats believing in a rational world head toward a presidential defeat,” Trenchant Observations, November 24, 2023:
See the closely reasoned analysis in Robert Kagan, “A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending,” Washington Post, November 30, 2023.
See James Rowles, “Eight great illusions about the war in Ukraine: Where we stand now,” Trenchant Observations, October 4, 2022.
2023.
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