Doctor of Juridical Science (SJD) in International Law, Harvard University
Even before Jack Smith announced the indictment of Donald Trump for his role in the attempted coup d’état in 2021, I was thinking of the first half of the twentieth century, when mass political emotions overwhelmed reason and democracy in Italy, Germany, and other countries.
It seems today that those who oppose the fascist movement in the United States led by Donald Trump and his acolytes in the Republican party1 are placing most of their bets on the triumph of reason, in the belief that people are essentially guided by reason, and that no reasonable man or woman could vote for Donald Trump, a former president now indicted for trying to overthrow the Constitution and the democratic government of the United States.
Yet stranger things have happened. Germany provides the most obvious and provocative example.
One should perhaps reread and study carefully the classic text by José Ortega y Gasset (The Revolt of the Masses, 1930), who identified the profound changes taking place in the European mass psyche, to better understand how the power of Unreason grew to such an extent that it overpowered Reason itself, leading to such gruesome events as those of World War II and the extermination of the Jews, the gypsies, and otters deemed unworthy of life.
Given the horrendous things that were going on in the Soviet Union after the Bolsheviks’ 1917 October Revolution, and the deep misgivings about the power of Reason after the incredibly irrational, stupid, and destructive war of 1914-1918, public opinion in Europe was subject to irrational mass emotions skillfully manipulated by political leaders.
Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Party never received more than 37.3% of the popular votes in free elections.
That is roughly the number of Trump’s hard-core supporters, by way of comparison. A recent poll showed that Biden and Trump are essentially tied in the race for the presidency in 2024. Another point of comparison.
Hitler achieved his level of support, which led to the Nazi Party emerging with the largest number of seats in ahe Reichstag (German parliament), in both the July and the November 1932 elections, with 37.3% and 33.1% of the popular vote, respectively.
Even in the March 5, 1933 elections which were not free, the Nazi Party did not gain a majority, receiving only 43.91% of the vote. These elections took place after the Reichstag fire and during the harsh repression and arrests of Communists and other opposition leaders.
After his failed beer hall Putsch in Munich in 1923 and while in prison writing Mein Kampf (“My Struggle”), his political screed, Hitler had made no secret of his violent and hate-filled sentiments against Jews and other defenders of the democratic order based on reason and democratic precepts.
One needs only to listen to Hitler’s speeches in German, as I have done, or in German with subtitles as anyone can do, to understand the hate and vile statements they contained.
You have to listen to these speeches in German, even with subtitles, to understand their effect on people. There was something mesmerizing about them, some kind of primal scream, which bypassing the brains of those in Hitler’s audiences penetrated to the depths of their psyches and hearts.
And yet it was that very hate and violent rhetoric which drew his supporters to him. In the April 10, 1932 run-off elections for the presidency, incumbent President Paul von Hindenburg won 53% of the vote, Hitler, 36.8%, and the Communist candidate 10.2%.
In the July 1932 Reichstag elections, the Nazi Party won 37.3% of the vote and was easily the largest party in the Reichstag. Significantly, except for the Catholics, the middle and upper classes had gone over to the Nazis.
Could it happen here?
See Sinclair Lewis' humorous but insightful novel, It Can’t Happen Here (1935).
Of course, one might pose the question differently, e.g., “Is there any reason it can’t happen here?”
Recommended reading for all concerned citizens:
William L. Shirer, The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich: A History of Nazi Germany (Simon and Shuster, 1960), The 50th anniversary edition is a beautifully produced book, 1147 pp. of text plus Introduction and footnotes.
In a country in which half the electorate, or at least 35-40% of the electorate, don’t have an accurate understanding of essential political facts, or say they don’t care if the former President while in office tried to overthrow the election and the Constitution, we are in uncharted waters.
This is the world we are living in, today, in the United States.
We are in extremely dangerous waters, where an unpredictable wave of mass emotions could overturn our democratic ship of state.
The battle to save our democracy may not be decided by voters following reason.
It is important to continue to convince and motivate those who are guided by reason. But it is also important, and perhaps even more important, to undertake actions that might sway those who are not currently listening to reason.
Massive campaigns should be launched now to help shape political debate and the electoral battlefield.
How to do that should be an overriding focus of concern.
See,
1)“Sleepwalking in the garden of fascism: ‘Merrily we roll along!'” The Trenchant Observer, June 2, 2021.
2)”A Parable of our time: “Our democratic house is on fire!” The Trenchant Observer, September 23, 2021.
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See also “Why I care about the war in Ukraine,” Trenchant Observations, June 26, 2023.
See “Maureen Dowd, “Coup-Coup-Ca-Choo, Trump-Style,” New York Times, August 5, 2023.