Ukraine: Could long-range ATACMS (180 mile or 300 km) join Ukrainian combined arms counter-offensive?
Will the U.S. actively support Ukraine's efforts to liberate the Crimea from Russia's illegal military occupation?
Doctor of Juridical Science (SJD) in International Law, Harvard University
Adapted from The Trenchant Observer, June 14, 2023
History and historical clues are often to be found in the details. A writer with a good historian's eye is always on the look-out for such details.
In a review of Ukraine's use of Western-supplied weapons to date and in its current counter-offensive1, Alfred Hackensberger of Die Welt mentions in passing one tantalizing rumored detail. He writes:
The counter-offensive as a cat-and-mouse game? A surprising element would fit well with this. A momentum, as Ukraine had already conjured out of its hat in Kharkiv. It is still completely unclear what Kiev is planning. Perhaps Washington will finally give the green light to use the long-range missiles ATACMS, which, according to rumors, are already stored in Ukrainian depots.
It would make great sense to have the ATACMS already stored in depots, together with unmodified HIMARS artillery units capable of firing them--or, alternativeely, quietly to undo the modifications Biden originally ordered to limit their range when providing them.
That would mean the ATACMS and HIMARS capable of launching them could be quickly integrated into the combine armed forces counter-attack of Ukraine. This would give Ukraine an enormous advantage, with the capability of striking targets up to 180 mikes (300 km) away. That means Ukraine could strike any Russian target in the Crimea, as well as the Kerch Strait Bridge.
The world, and perhaps the future course of the war, await a green light from President Joe Biden.
Will Biden overcome his fear of Putin, or be nudged to act in any event?
The U.S. has consistently withheld weapons or insisted on limitations on their use, in order not to cross one of Vladimir Putin’s “red lines”.
Biden has been pushed, both by allies and one suspects by his own military leaders, to cross one red line after another.
Will he now commit to actions necessary to secure a Ukrainian victory, in the foreseeable future, or will he continue his approach of withholding weapons Ukraine needs, while supporting Ukraine’s war efforts “for as long as it takes”, down to the last Ukrainian soldier?
***
See also,
1)“Ukraine War, June 13, 2023: Inter-species slavery--Russian military train dolphins to defend its fleet,” The Trenchant Observer, June 13, 2023.
2)”Ukraine War, June 12, 2023: The human face of war--on the front lines in the Zaporizhzhia region,” The Trenchant Observer, June 12, 2023.
***
Support the Author
There are two ways to support the author, so that he can continue to publish articles and books dealing with the war in Ukraine and other pressing international issues, including articles published here in the Trenchant Observations Newsletter and in The Trenchant Observer blog.
First, you may make a contribution to his Go Fund Me appeal by clicking on the last button and link below.
Second, you may order a paid subscription or upgrade to a Founding Member subscription to Trenchant Observations, by clicking on the “Subscribe” button below. (Substack takes 10% of the subscription amount.)
Finally, to help build the audience for Trenchant Observations, you can share aricles you like with your friends and colleagues, by clicking on the “Share” button.
See also “Why I care about the war in Ukraine,” Trenchant Observations, June 26, 2023.
Alfred Hackensberger, “Jetzt hat Kiew Waffen aus dem Westen und benutzt sie nicht. Warum?, Die Welt, den 14. Juni 2023;.
Alfred Hackensberger, “Now Kiev has weapons from the West and does not use them. Why?” Die Welt June 14, 2023;