The next strategic issues: Ukrainian use of Western-supplied weapons in full exercise of its right of self-defense, and supplying Ukraine with ATACMS rockets for unmodified HIMARS artillery units
Attacking targets in Russia and liberating the Crimea
Doctor of Juridical Science (SJD) in International Law, Harvard University
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Strategic issues: (1) Ukrainian use of Western-supplied weapons in full exercise of its right of self-defense under international law
The long-heralded Ukrainian counter-offensive is underway, notwithstanding Russia’s blowing up the Nova Kakhovka dam, a monstrous war crime producing enormous destruction and ecological damage.
The Wall Street Journal reported today that Ukraine in one thrust had only advanced less than two miles.1 I checked the bio of lead author, who is the national religion reporter for the WSJ based in Los Angeles. Hunch confirmed. A military advance of “less than two miles” would seem to a military reporter to be quite significant.,Why doesn’t the WSJ bring back the distinguished military reporter Michael R. Gordon to make sense of these battlefield movements?
Meanwhile, The Telegraph reported that Ukrainian forces had broken through Russia’s first line of defenses, with the major thrusts in the Zaporizhzhia region. 2
While battlefield developments may dominate the headlines, the major strategic issue likely to affect the progress of the counter-offensive is whether the U.S. will stop enforcing Putin’s “red line” prohibiting Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory using U.S.-supplied weapons. This policy has led the U.S. to deny Ukraine weapons with such a capability, such as the long-range (180 mikes) ATACMS artillery rockets that can be fired from unmodified HIMARS artillery units. When President Biden supplied HIMARS to Ukraine, he made Ukraine promise not to attack targets in Russia and, using a White House lawyers’ “belt and suspenders” approach, had the HIMARS units he was delivering modified so that they could only fire artillery shells with an 80 km or 50 mile range.3
The sole limitation that should exist on the use of weapons supplied by the U.S. or other NATO countries should be that they be used only in exercise of the right of self-defense under international law and Article 51 of the U.N. Charter.
Strategic issues: (2) Supplying Ukraine with ATACMS rockets for unmodified HIMARS artillery units
President Biden needs to provide Ukraine with the ATACMS long-range artillery rockets for the HIMARS units, and either undo the modifications of the units sent to Ukraine limiting their use to 80 km-range shells, or exchange them for unmodified HIMARS units from which ATACMS can be fired. He should also release Ukraine from any restrictions on their use against targets in Russia, and any restrictions which may exist prohibiting their use against Russian forces in the Crimea.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive may be the last chance to quickly defeat the Russian forces and to avoid a long drawn-out war—which could work to the advantage of Russia, a country with over three times the population of Ukraine.
This is no time to hold back.
Ian Lovett, Marcus Walker, and Nikita Nicolaienko, “‘A Wall of Steel’: Ukrainian Troops Face Hard Slog in Offensive’s First Days; Brigades with Western arms make small gains against Russia’s defensive lines in occupied regions, Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2023 (updated 2:04 p.m.).
The assault progressed less than 2 miles, the soldier said. One of the Leopards was hit and disabled.
“Ukraine war: Kyiv breaks through Russia's first defensive lines,” The Telegraph, June 10, 2023 (6:05 pm):
For a little humor, see,”Ukraine War, June 10, 2022: SATIRE–Zelensky: “Where are the long-range artillery weapons? We need them NOW in the Donbas.” Biden: “We have a ‘Tiger Team’ working on that. What room are they in? Or are they working in the Arlington office?”; Germany may not deliver weapons, but at least they have droll humor,” The Trenchant Observer, June 10, 2022.
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See also “Why I care about the war in Ukraine,” Trenchant Observations, June 26, 2023.