Biden's foreign policy judgment; Send in the ATACMS now, Mr. President

Doctor of Juridical Science (SJD) in International Law, Harvard University

If Ukraine and the West lose this war of Russian aggression and Ukrainian self-defense, one name will go down in history as the person most responsible for the loss: that of President Joe Biden.

By denying Ukraine the weapons it needed before or when it needed them, and by vetoing the provision of American-made and other weapons to Ukraine in a timely manner, Biden has deprived Ukraine of the victories it night have achieved, and undercut the momentum Ukrainian forces won in the autumn of 2022 with rapid advances in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions.

By denying Ukraine the right to use American and NATO-supplied weapons to conduct counter-attacks against targets in Russia in full exercise of its right of self-defense under international law and Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, Biden has enabled Putin’s forces to launch missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities, apartment blocks, and other civilian targets including electrical and water infrastructure and the Nova Khakiva dam, with impunity.

Biden has denied the military assistance Ukraine has needed to defend itself and win the war. At the moment, the most urgent failure of decision on Biden’s part has been his refusal to allow the transfer of the ATACMS long-range (180 miles) artillery rockets for use with the HIMARS artillery units which Ukraine already has.

In response to earlier HIMARS-launched attacks with shells with only a 50-mike range, Russia has moved its command centers and munitions depots further back beyond the 50-mile range of these shells.

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon joins a large number of military and strategic analysts in urging the U.S. to immediately release the ATACMS to Ukraine for use in its current counteroffensive.¹ The impact would be great.

Joe Barnes of The Telegraph describes the latest developments in Ukraine’s drive in Zaporizhzhia province toward the Sea of Azov.²

There can be little doubt that the ATACMS would be immensely useful in Ukraine’s current drive toward the South in its effort to sever the Russian “land bridge” to the Crimea, and indeed in taking back the Crimea.

Winning the war means for Ukraine expelling invading Russia troops from all Ukrainian territory within its internationally-recognized borders of 1991, securing the payment of war reparations, and the accountability of Russian soldiers and leaders for all of the war crimes, including crimes against humanity and acts of genocide, which they have orchestrated and/or personally committed.

Victory for Ukraine, the U.N. Charter, and the civilized countries of the world means a just and lasting peace under the terms of the U.N. General Assembly Resolution of February 23, 2023, which was approved by a vote of 141-7, with 35 abstentions.

The moral responsibility of Joe Biden for the failure to deter Russia’s aggression, e.g., taking the use of force off the table in the event of a Russian invasion, the failure to impose any sanctions against Russia for the threat of the use of force proscribed by Article 2 (4) of the U.N. Charter, and the delayed and halting threats of sanctions (e.g., blocking the Nordstream II gas pipeline or expulsion from the SWIFT international payments system), is immense.

Historians are likely to rank Biden’s failures of leadership in deterring and then combatting Russia’s aggression against Ukraine as being as calamitous as his decision to withdraw all U.S. forces and contractors from Afghanistan.

His presidency has been largely successful on the domestic front.

But historians are likely to judge that it has been a disaster on the foreign policy front. Popularity ratings tell us little. We should recall that British prime minister Neville Chamberlain’s policy of appeasement of Adolf Hitler was popular in England at the time, though it proved to be utterly disastrous in the event.

Now is not the time to detail the arguments historians are likely to make in judging all of Joe Biden’s foreign policy decisions and initiatives.

Rather, it is a time to urge–and demand–that Joe Biden start taking actions to salvage what he can of his reputation while acting to successfully defend the U.N. Charter, international law, and the United Nations itself.

A good start would be to send the ATACMS artillery rockets to Ukraine, now.

Now. Forthwith. Immediately.

1. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, “A failed counteroffensive would be catastrophic for the West; While Ukraine fights for its freedom, Western armaments lie dormant in warehouses and hangers, The Telegraph, July 28, 2023 (3:11 pm);

2. Joe Barnes, “Ukrainian counter-offensive breaks through Russian defences in major push; Massive Himars strike and push through village signal new phase in fightback against Putin’s forces,” The Telegraph, July 27, 2023 (9:03 pm);

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See also “Why I care about the war in Ukraine,” Trenchant Observations, June 26, 2023.