Scholz and Germany plan to block transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, setting forth "bad faith" condition for transfers
Fear of Putin, or fear of pacifists and Russia-friendly elements in SPD?
Contents
Part One
January 17, 2023: Germany’s timorous and calculating leader, “Kein Alleingang” Scholz, apparently blockng transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, names former member of German-Russian Parliamentary Friendship Group to be Defense Minister
Part Two
January 18, 2023: Tank battles among Ukraine’s allies; Scholz acts in bad faith, will block transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine
See also “NATO Policy on Transfer to Ukraine of Armored Vehicles and Battle Tanks is Changing, as Putin's Nuclear Threats Lose Credibility,” Trenchant Observations, January 16, 2923,
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Part One
January 17, 2023: Germany’s timorous and calculating leader, “Kein Alleingang” Scholz, apparently blockng transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, names former member of German-Russian Parliamentary Friendship Group to be Defense Minister
Adapted from The Trenchant Observer, January 17, 2023.
The current situation regarding the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is covered in the following news dispatches:
1) Joe Barnes, James Crisp, and James Rothwell, “Germany won’t act alone in sending tanks to Ukraine, says Olaf Scholz; Comments come after economy minister says Germany likely to approve export declarations only if US sends battle tanks first,” The Telegraph, January 17, 2023 (7:15 p.m.);
2) Elena G. Sevillano (Berlin), “Scholz nombra a Boris Pistorius nuevo ministro de Defensa de Alemania en sustitución de Lambrecht; El socialdemócrata, de 62 años, es actualmente responsable de Interior en Baja Sajonia. Su nombramiento acaba con la paridad del Gabinete del canciller,” El País, el 17 de enero dev2023 (actualizado a las 05:50);
3) “Elena G. Sevillano (Berlin), “Schools appoints Boris Pistorius as the new Minister of Defense of Germany to replace Lambrecht; The 62-year-old Social Democrat is currently in charge of the Interior in Lower Saxony. His appointment ends with the parity of the Chancellor’s Cabinet,” El País, January 17, 2023 (updated 05:50):
4) Elena G. Sevillano (Berlin) y María R, Sahuquillo (Estrasburgo), “Alemania se abre a suavizar el veto al envío de carros de combate a Ucrania; Los aliados esperan un giro en la posición de Berlín que permita suministrar el material solicitado por Kiev,” El País, el 17 de enero 2023 (14:03);
5) Elena G. Sevillano (Berlin) y María R, Sahuquillo (Strasbourg), “Germany opens up to soften the veto on the shipment of tanks to Ukraine; The allies expect a turn in Berlin’s position to supply the material requested by Kiev,” El País, January 17, 2023 (14:03);
6) Marina Kormbaki, Veit Medick und Christian Teevs, “Der rote General: Olaf Scholz gelingt mit der Nominierung von Boris Pistorius ein Überraschungscoup. Der scharfzüngige Niedersachse will seit Langem nach Berlin, jetzt wird er Verteidigungsminister. Ist er dem Amt gewachsen?” Der Spiegel, den 17. Januar 2023 (14:31 Uhr);
Von Marina Kormbaki, Veit Medick und Christian Teevs
17.01.2023, 14.31 Uhr
7) Marina Kormbaki, Veit Medick and Christian Teevs, “the red general; Olaf Scholz succeeds in a surprise coup with the nomination of Boris Pistorius. The sharp-tongued Lower Saxony has wanted to go to Berlin for a long time, now he is becoming Minister of Defense. Is he up to office?” Der Spiegel, January 17, 2023 (2:31 pm):
Analysis
Barnes, Crisp, and Rothwell report on the latest moves by the duplicitous German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz:
Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, said on Tuesday that the country would never act “alone” as Berlin hinted that it was waiting for the United States to send battle tanks to Ukraine before following suit.
Mr Scholz said his support for Kyiv would only be ramped up if it avoids “escalating” the war in Ukraine – something his officials believe sending Leopard II tanks could do.
…In response to questions over his reluctance to sanction tank donations, Mr Scholz said one of his aims was to avoid the conflict “escalating” to become “a war between Russia and Nato”.
…“One message above all – we will always act together with our allies and friends,” he added. “We are never going alone, because this is necessary in a very difficult situation like this.”
…
Officials in Washington have warned that they are unlikely to send Abrams battle tanks because they are notoriously hard to operate and maintain.Any decision will involve Boris Pistorius, Germany’s new defence minister, a dark horse candidate chosen to replace Christine Lambrecht after she resigned on Monday following a series of gaffes.
The appointment of Mr Pistorius, 61, is likely to raise eyebrows in Kyiv because he was a member of the German-Russian Friendship parliamentary group before it was dissolved following the invasion of Ukraine.
Scholz has now apparently signalled that his priority is satisfying the pro-Russia-leaning elements of his SPD party, not helping Ukraine win the war quickly. Scholz seems coldly indifferent to the fact that his diltory decision making and dragging of feet on supplying urgently-needed weapons to Ukraine has cost and will cost thousands of Ukrainian lives.
After what it did to Ukraine in World War II, one might expect Germany to do more to help Ukraine defeat military aggression by the 21st century successor to German fascism, the fascist state of Vladimir Putin.
Scholz seems to be planning to continue his duplicitous show, setting out a hapless Defense Minister to absorb the blame for executing his own policies, as he did with Christine Lambrecht, the former Defense Minister who resigned on Monday.
This is the first time Pistorius has held a cabinet position at the federal level.
Whether Pistorius will be more than a shield for Scholz remains to be seen. One of his political qualifications seems to be that he was a member of the German-Russian Parliamentary Friendship Group in the Bundestag, a group which brought together pro-Russian members of the legislature.
But Pistorius has also served in the Bundeswehr, and brings 10 years of experience as Interior Minister in the State of Lower Saxony to his new job. To name him, Scholz had to abandon his policy of gender parity in his cabinet.
One must hope that Pistorius will be successful and also be able to stand up to Scholz on questions relating to arms deliveries to Ukraine.
Still, Scholz’s duplicity is blatantly obvious with the tired repetition of his old refrain, “Kein Alleingang” (no going it alone).
How Scholz can sing his “Kein Alleingang” refrain with a straight face, after Britain (a NATO member) has promised to send Challenger 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, and other countries have indicated a willingness to transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine provided they get authorization from Berlin, strains the imagination.
Moreover, by posing as a condition that the U.S.must send its Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine before he authorizes the transfer of German Leopard 2 tanks, when he knows this is unlikely, Scholz is committing a perfidious betrayal of the Ukrainians.
We can expect nothing but more of the same from Scholz.
His abject fear of Putin leaves life and death decisions on whether to transfer needed weapons to Ukraine in the hands of arch war criminal Vladimir Putin. His demeaning groveling before the “Putin Versteher” (those who understand Putin”) and the pro-Russian elements in his Social Democratic Party is disgraceful and places him clearly on the path of appeasement.
Infinitely calculating, and lacking any vision other than to survive in the middle, Olaf Scholz cannot be viewed as an honest and reliable partner by Joe Biden or other NATO leaders.
Ukraine will probably not get the weapons and munitions it needs within the time frame it needs them, so long as Scholz remains Chancellor. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbach has a much firmer grasp of the realities of the Ukraine war and what military and other aid Ukraine needs.
It may be time for the Greens to head the governing coalition.
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Part Two
January 18, 2023: Tank battles among Ukraine’s allies; Scholz acts in bad faith, will block transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine
Adapted from The Trenchant Observer, January 18, 2023.
The current situation regarding the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is covered in the following news dispatches:
1) George F. Will, “Why Germany must not hesitate sending tanks to Ukraine — lots of them, Washington Post, January 18: 2023 (00 a.m. EST);;
2) Sylvie Kauffmann, “L’Allemagne détient la clé de l’accélérateur de l’aide militaire occidentale à l’Ukraine, au moment stratégique où cette assistance doit s’intensifier; Libérer des chars Leopard ou autoriser des pays européens à en céder à l’Ukraine est une décision lourde pour Berlin, jusqu’ici très réticent, observe, dans sa chronique, Sylvie Kauffmann, éditorialiste au ‘Monde’. Le 18 janvier 2023 (05h45, mis à jour à 06h44);
3) Sylvie Kauffmann, “Germany holds the key to the accelerator of Western military aid to Ukraine, at a strategic moment when this assistance must intensify; Freeing Leopard tanks or allowing European countries to give them to Ukraine is a heavy decision for Berlin, so far very reluctant, observes, Sylvie Kauffmann, editorialist at “Le Monde”, in her column,” Le Monde, January 18, 2023 (05:45, updated at 06:44);
4) Bojan Pancevski and Elena Cherney, “Berlin Won’t Allow Exports of German Tanks to Ukraine Unless U.S. Sends Its Own; North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies have over 2,000 German-made Leopard tanks, Wall Street Journal, January 18, 2023 (Updated 4:06 pm ET);
5) Christian Segura, “ATACMS, la llamada desesperada de Ucrania para recibir misiles de largo alcance; Kiev insiste en que el futuro de la guerra depende del suministro por parte de la OTAN de armas más potentes,” El País, el 17 de enero 2023 (23:40 EST);
6) Christian Segura, “ATACMS, Ukraine’s desperate call to receive long-range missiles; Kiev insists that the future of the war depends on NATO’s supply of more powerful weapons,” El País, January 17, 2023 (23;40 ESR);
7) Daniel Brössler, Georg Ismar, Wolfgang Krach, Nicolas Richter und Vivien Timmler (Berlin/Davos), “Scholz zu Kampfpanzer-Lieferung bereit – unter einer Bedingung; Der Kanzler ist offenbar zur Lieferung von “Leopard 2”-Panzern an die Ukraine bereit. Aber nur unter der Voraussetzung, dass auch die USA Kampfpanzer zur Verfügung stellen, Süddeutscher Zeitung, den 18. Januar2023 (20:23 Uhr);
8) “Scholz ready for main battle tank delivery – under one condition: The chancellor is apparently ready to deliver “Leopard 2″ lancers to Ukraine. But only on the condition that the USA also provides main battle tanks,” Süddeutsche Zeitung, January 18, 2023 (8:23 p.m.).
Analysis
Bad faith. You don’t want a coalition partner who deals in bad faith.
Olaf Scholz may be such a partner.
He apparently plans to block the delivery by Germany or by other European partners of German-made Leopard 2 tanks. Even the Leopard 2’s owned by other countries require German authorization for transfers because the tanks were built in Germany.
But he is being cute. He has stated he’s open to transferring the Leopard 2’s, provided the U.S. delivers its Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
The U.S. has apparently ruled that out because the Abrams tanks use much greater fuel, and are difficult to operate and to maintain, which could be nearly impossible if they are deployed to the battlefield in Ukraine.
Scholz seems to be more afraid of Vladimir Putin and his nuclear threats than is Joe Biden.
Yet he may be even more afraid of losing the support of the “Putin Versteher” (those who understand Putin) and other frankly pacifist or pro-Russian elements within his own Social Democratic Party (SDP). Scholz represents the SPD as Chancellor in the ruling “traffic light coalition”. His coalition partners, the Green Party (“the Greens”) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) strongly favor delivering the tanks.
In effect, the NATO and other countries which want to deliver their own Leopard 2 tanks and other advanced weapons to Ukraine are being held hostage by pacifist and pro-Russian elements within the SPD.
Those elements are what is important to Scholz, not the military needs of Ukraine to repel the invasion by Russia, a nuclear superpower with far greater population and resources than Ukraine.
The Leopard 2 tanks are critically important elements of the combined forces Germany and other countries have just agreed to strengthen by promising to deliver modern infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and light reconnaissance tanks to Ukraine.
Scholz has interposed his political judgment (and needs) in the place of sound military judgment which supports delivery of the Leopard 2’s.
He was the Vice-Chancellor in the CDU-SPD coalition government of Àngela Merkel, where he apparently learned how to be opaque and muddle his way through difficult situations. Her approach led to her and the SPD’s support for the Nordstream II gas pipeline and for Germany’s extreme over-dependence on Russian gas.
He was elected General Secretary of the SPD in 2002 and served alongside then Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who when he left office went to work for the Russian gas companies involved with the Nordstream I and II pipeline projects. Schroeder became a close associate and friend of Putin.
Scholz has named Boris Pistorius to be the new Defense Minister, which could be a bow to the pacifist and Russia-friendly elements in his party. Pistorius has no cabinet-level experience at the federal level, but he does have a solid record as Interior Minister in the State of Lower Saxony for over 10 years. Moreover, he has served in the Bundeswehr unlike his predecessors.
Whatever the causes, Scholz is blocking the transfer of the Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, even by other countries, and setting forth a condition in bad faith which he knows will not be satisfied.
If Ukraine loses the war or the war drags on for a number of years, the foot-dragging of Olaf Scholz and the SPD in providing heavy weapons to Ukraine, along with that of Joe Biden. will have been major causes.
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