President Biden, NATO, do something! It is obscene to stand by and do nothing to stop Putin as he pummels Ukraine
Since the days leading up to New Year’s Day Russia has continued its massive missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure across the country.1 As has been true throughout the war, Vladimir Putin has been left free to launch his attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine without having to worry about vigorous counter-attacks on the bases and platforms from which Russian missiles and drones are launched.
Joe Biden fears Putin and his nuclear threats, and consequently has respected Putin’s “red line” prohibiting attacks with U.S. and NATO-supplied weapons on targets on Russian territory.
The situation has been one in which Putin is in effect shooting fish in a barrel.
While this situation has been changing as the West supplies Ukraine with more advanced air defense systems, the Russians still have the advantage of launching attacks from bases and platforms which are themselves not subject to Ukrainian counterattacks. This is so because Jo Biden and NATO have refused to supply Ukraine with weapons capable of hitting targets in Russia proper or have imposed restrictions on the use of such weapons.
The putported “annexations” of four provinces plus the Crimea in Ukraine are in violation of peremptory norms of international law (jus cogens) and without legal effect.
The effect of Biden’s restrictions is that while Ukraine can strengthen its air defenses, it cannot use U.S.-supplied weapons to attack bases within Russia which it has every right to attack in exercise of the right of self-defense under international law and Article 51 of the U.N. Charter.
As a consequence of Biden’s restrictions on the transfer of weapons to Ukraine and their use, the war in Ukraine has dragged out at the cost of thousands of Ukrainian lives.
So, as Russia pummels Ukraine like shooting fish in a barrel, where do things stand in the Ukraine war?
We have analyzed ad nauseam the gross errors in President Joe Biden’s and NATO’s strategy toward stopping Putin in Ukraine.
Joe Biden’s fear of Putin and his stubbornness in refusing to form a new foreign policy team, to examine closely his own judgments based on his fear of Putin, and to take seriously the arguments of his critics, have needlessly cost thousands of Ukrainian lives while dragging out the war indefinitely.
If Ukraine and the West lose this war, it may in large part be Joe Biden’s fault.
It is too late to correct Biden’s catastrophic decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.
Yet it may not be too late to make course corrections in U.S. and NATO strategy to defeat Russia and halt its aggression and war crimes in Ukraine.
To do so, Biden needs to do several things:
1) First, he needs to replace Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.
Their failures and shortcomings have been analyzed in numerous articles published here and in The Trenchant Observer blog.
The Democratic Congress (2020-2022) has failed utterly to conduct meaningful oversight of tbe Biden Administration’s conduct of foreign policy. Now, with Republicans controlling the House, there is a chance that beyond partisan histronics, meaningful oversight can begin.
We have yet so see a critical analysis by the administration or Congress of the policies and decisions behind the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
We have yet to see a critical analysis of Biden’s policy to telegraph to Vladimir Putin that NATO would not intervene with force if Putin invaded Russia.
We have yet to see a critical analysis of the American and NATO failure to deter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including the failure to impose any sanctions on Russia prior to the actual invasion.
Above all, we need to have a thorough investigation into the details relating to Biden’s fear of Putin’s nuclear threats.
How rational is Biden’s fear that if he crosses Putin’s “red lines” it will cause the break-up of NATO and lead to nuclear annihilation (what Biden calls "World War III")?2
What has been the substance of Jake Sullivan’s and other officials’ back-channel communications with Putin’s aides?
What understandings with Putin exist, if any, regarding Putin’s “red line” of not allowing any Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory?
What are the long-term goals of the U.S. and NATO in the war in Ukraine?
What are the stakes in the conflict?
If the stakes are as great as most experts think, why has Biden failed to explain the pertinent facts to the American people? If they are as great as most experts think, why haven’t Biden and the West pressed hard to make the countries of the “global South” join our cause? Why haven’t they ramped up munitions production in wartime emergency fashion, as in World War II?
Biden still has time to act. But it will be extremely difficult for him, emotionally, to replace Blinken and Sullivan. They are his protegés. They owe their current positions to him. He has trusted their foreign policy advice for 10-20 years.
Yet if he fails to replace Blinken and Sullivan, he will be extremely vulnerable to a Republican candidate for the presidency in 2024. And the flaws in current policy will not be corrected.
If Biden refuses to replace Blinken and Sullivan and he does not address criticism of his Afghanistan decision, whoever the Democratic candidate may be in 2024, Democrats will remain extremely vulnerable on foreign policy issues.
This will be particularly true if the Republicans choose a post-MAGA presidential candidate who is strong on defense.
Biden’s best chance to cauterize the Afghanistan wound would be to admit his mistakes while replacing Blinken and Sullivan. He could say he’s bringing in a new team to make sure such mistakes are not repeated in the future.
Will he? Could he? That is the question.
American voters have not given much importance to foreign policy issues in recent elections. With the Ukraine war in its third year in the fall of 2024, this could change–with disastrous consequences for tbe Democrats.
Putin’s war aims are clear. He will not yield.
The Russian people know what’s going on. Their hardened beliefs mean that democracy and justice may remain distant goals, even after Putin is gone.3
What will the world and American security look like if Putin and Russia prevail in the war, i.e., if they are not obliged to withdraw all Russian troops from Ukrainian soil?
2)The second thing that Biden needs to do is to relax current restrictions on the transfer of weapons to Ukraine and their use, and provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defend itself in accordance with international law and the U.N. Charter, even if that means that Ukraine attacks targets within Russia from which missile and other attacks on Ukraine are being launched.
3) The third thing Biden should do is to lead NATO and other allies in a crusade to uphold the United Nations Charter and international law.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky understands this point4 Zelensky states his country's war aims in terms that are clearly consistenr with international law.
The crusade to uphold the U.N. Charter and international law should not be explicitly for democracy. Biden should seek the support even of non-democratic governments. The battle for democracy is another and separate battle, one in which certainly Biden should speak out loudly and clearly, to the demonstrators in Iran, and to democratic movements in other countries.
This is largely about how the argument should be tructured. Whatever he may say about democracy. he should make a strong appeal to uphold the U.N. Charter and international law. These encompass anti- colonialism, international human rights, and international humanitarian law (the law of war). Only if the struggle to uphold the U.N. Charter and international law is won will conditions exist that are favorable for the growth of democracy.
It is time for the cool President Biden in his aviator shades to remove his sunglasses, take a hard look at reality in the full light of day, roll up his sleeves, and go to work building a new foreign policy team.
He should also work to forge a new foreign policy aimed at victory in the battle to repel Russian aggression, halt and punish Russian war crimes, and uphold the U.N. Charter.
Only if this victory is secured will democracy have a chance to flourish, and humanity be able to move forward in meeting existential challenges such as global warming and climate change.
The Trenchant Observer
See, e.g.,
María R. Sahuquillo (Kiev), “Rusia lanza uno de los mayores ataqueserra contra las infraestructuras energéticas de Ucrania; Una lluvia de misiles en vísperas del Año Nuevo deja sin luz al 90% de los hogares de la ciudad de Lviv y al 40% de los de Kiev,” El País, el 29 devdiciembre 2022 (actualizado a las 12:37 EST).
María R. Sahuquillo (Kilev), “Russia launches one of the biggest war attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure; A rain of missiles on New Year’s Eve leaves 90% of the homes in the city of Lviv and 40% of those in Kiev without light,” el País, December 29, 2022 (updated at 12:37 EST).
See David Ignatius, “‘Victory’? Zelensky and Biden differ on the path forward for Ukraine,” Washington Post, December 22, 2022 (3:54 p.m. EST).
Ignatius quotes Biden as follows:
This war almost surely won’t end with the total elimination of Russian war power, which helps explain why Biden actively resists the rhetoric of “total victory.” He said so explicitly in Wednesday’s White House news conference, when a Ukrainian reporter asked whether he would give Kyiv long-distance missiles that could strike Russia and provide Ukraine “all capabilities it needs [to] liberate all territories rather sooner than later.”
Biden answered that giving Ukraine such potent attack weapons “would have a prospect of breaking up NATO.” He said that NATO allies are “not looking to go to war with Russia. They’re not looking for a third world war.”
See Christina Hebel (Moscow), “Gudkow: ‘The Russians have little sympathy with the Ukrainians’; Lev Gudkov and his independent opinion research institute are investigating how the Russians tick. Here he talks about a lack of morality in his homeland, the victim mentality and the fear of nuclear war (Interview),” Der Spiegel, December 29, 2022 (1:90 p.m.)–from DER SPIEGEL 1/2023;
See “Ukraine War, December 28, 2022 (III): Semantic confusion--Zelensky seeks "total victory" while Biden's muddled thinking bodes ill for Ukraine,” The Trenchant Observer, December 28, 2022. Excerpt:
David Ignatius [see note 2 above] has zeroed in on the differences between President Volodymy Zelenksy and President Joe Biden with respect to the goals in the Ukraine war.
Part of the difference is due to a semantic misunderstanding, which results in part from Biden’s inability to view the conflict through the lens of international law. For Zelensky, “total victory” means withdrawal of Russian troops from all of Ukraine, in accordance with international law. It also means payment of war reparations, in accordance with international law, and the trial of war criminals, in accordance with international law.
For Zelensky, “total victory” means the victory of Ukraine through the victory of international law and the United Nations Charter.
Biden appears to misunderstand “total victory” to mean “unconditional surrender” as in the case of Nazi Germany and Japan in World War II.
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See also “Why I care about the war in Ukraine,” Trenchant Observations, June 26, 2022.
Another great article- wish the powers that be would heed and do as you recommend. Thank you n I'm praying joy