Note to readers
The newsletter is aimed at a variety of audiences, including decision makers, journalists, and other experts who are following these matters closely. Sometimes the details may sound boring to other readers who are just interested in foreign affairs more generally. But even non-experts, if they read all of the articles carefully, will share in some of the drama and excitement of witnessing decision making as it actually happens.
What we try to follow is the process of decision making, as well as the decisions once they are made. If you join us in this venture, over time you will begin to see the major factors in such decision making, and to understand what individual developments or actions mean in the context of the continuing overall narrative.
You will see, for example, how the decision to transfer or authorize the transfer of the Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is part of a larger story that includes Putin’s nuclear threats and Joe Biden’s and Olaf Scholz’s fears of Putin, and how these fears have affected the nature of weapons sent to Ukraine and the timing of their delivery since February 2022.
You will understand that today’s decision on the transfer of the Leopard 2’s is but one decision point in a process that has moved from:
1) the American blocking in March of the transfer by Poland of old Soviet-made jet fighters to Ukraine,
2) to active involvement by Western intelligence and military officials in providing real-time targeting information to Ukrainian troops,
3) to provision of HIMARS artillery pieces to Uktaine (after much resistance and delay),
4) to the recent provision of armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles (after much resistance and delay),
5) up to the provision of battle tanks to Ukraine—the current point in the debate,
The next decision points in terms of military assistance are likely to be:
6) the provision of the ATACAMS artillery rockets for the HIMARS artillery units, and reversing the secret modifications to the HIMARS that have been delivered to prevent them from using the ATACMS long-range (300 km) rockets, and
7) the supply of jet fighter aircraft.
Other future decision points could be the delivery of advanced American drones, and missiles which could destroy Russian air and naval platforms from which missiles and drones are being launched at Ukrainian targets, or land bases from which such platforms or missiles and drones are launched.
Steady readers, as most of you loyal subscribers are, will understand the various strands of the larger story, the stakes in the conflict, and the significance of any particular action or decision.
You will recall that while all of this attention is being devoted to the issue of the delivery of battle tanks, very little is being done by the U.S. to press the countries of the “Global South” to condemn the Russian aggression and barbarism in Ukraine and to join the international sanctions regime, though the Europeans have begun making some efforts in this regard. And certainly readers will have gained some appreciation of the ways in which international law and the U.N. Charter shape the conflict and limit the possible terms of any ceasefire or peace settlement that might be reached.
Especially as the “spectator war” draws out over the coming years, and Ukraine’s military allies begin to understand that the war is a war for survival, not only of Ukraine but also of their own country, and of our collective civilization based on reason and law, the level of military engagement is likely to increase.
Poland threatens to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine without German approval
Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has put his finger on a decisive aspect of the provision to Ukraine of the weapons it needs to repel Russian aggression and barbarism.1
International security and the future of international law and the U.N. Charter can and should not be subordinated to a contractual clause in a purchase agreement for tanks, and to the recalcitrance of a weak and dithering Chancellor in Germany who is more concerned with the pacifists and Russia-friendly elements in his own SPD party than he is with the freedom of Ukraine and the security of Europe and the world.
Olaf Scholz has been a skillful politician in muddling through decisions in the mold of Àngela Merkel, in whose cabinet he served as Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Finance–in a peacetime environment.
But he has not shown himself to be a visionary leader in wartime, as he has dragged his feet on every major decision and its implementation relating to providing military assistance to Ukraine–in a wartime environment where the stakes are incredibly high.
In his defense, one might argue that he has succeeded in bringing the pacifist and Russia-friendly elements of the Social Democratic Party along in supporting military and other assistance to Ukraine–as they slowly awake from their pro-Russian dreams and illusions.
However, the fate of Ukraine cannot be subordinated to the domestic political agenda of the leader of one nation, even a nation as important as Germany.
Poland and other European countries who wish to send their German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine should feel free to do so. If Germany wants to pursue legal remedies, it can proceed accordingly.
But even in legal terms, there are public policies and force majeure provisions which might override the requirement that Germany approve the transfer of their tanks to Ukraine.
Decision makers need to get a grip: The question facing Europe and the world is not about the binding nature of a legal provision in a contract, when Russia is trying to tear up the U.N. Charter and the international legal order.
Moreover, there are other countries which make tanks. In the future, such approval provisions may be much more carefully negotiated and drafted. It is not likely that a German manufacturer would refuse to sell tanks to a country that violated the German government approval provision, or that the German government would block such a sale.
What does it all mean?
It means that Olaf Scholz’s veto power over providing advanced arms and munitions to Ukraine must be wrested from his hands.
German voters will have to decide whether they want the pacifists and Russia-friendly elements of the SPD to dictate the extent of German military assistance to Ukraine, or might prefer a government led by the Green Party and foreign minister Annalena Baerbach.
If the Greens withdraw from the governing ‘traffic-light coalition”, elections will need to be held. Given the support of the SPD in Germany today (18-20%) , the Greens (18-20%) might well win the largest plurality of the votes after thevCDU/CSU (currently atb27-28%). A Green Party-CDU governing coalition could be the result. The Greens and the CDU are currently partners in governing coalitions in three of the most important federal states in Germany.
In the meantime, Ukraine and the West have a war of self-defense to prosecute against the aggression and barbarism of the invading Russian troops.
See Loveday Morris and Dan Lamothe, “U.S. defense chief in Berlin for talks as Germany stalls on tank deliveries,” Washington Post, January 19, 2023(Updated at 2:14 p.m. EST).
This article provides an overview of the latest developments regarding the transfer of the Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
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See also “Why I care about the war in Ukraine,” Trenchant Observations, June 26, 2023,