House passes military aid for Ukraine. Now what?
Fundamental flaws in strategy must be corrected.
The U.S. House of Representatives approved the military aid package for Ukraine on April 20, 2021, after Republicans had delayed and blocked passage of the bill for six months.1
Deep flaws in U.S. and NATO countries' strategy remain.
The muddled and timorous strategy of Joe Biden and NATO countries will not lead to victory.
Moreover, the timing of the deployment of the new aid is a big problem. There is a six-month backlog. Will the newly-authorized aid arrive in time to forestall further Russian advances on the ground, and the further destruction of Ukranian cities and critical infrastructure?
Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz still think this is Ukraine’s war. Nicholas Tenzer, who has argued cogently in his terrific book, Nôtre Guerre2, that the war in Ukraine is “Our War”, has just published a perceptive take on where the U.S. and the West need to go from here, after approval of the American aid.
In his Substack newsletter, Tenzer Strategics, Tenzer stresses many of the same defects in strategy we have been emphasizing here and in The Trenchant Observer blog, since early in tbe war. The fact that Biden and the West have continued to make the same strategic mistakes for over two years does not make them any less relevant or in need of urgent correction.
The greatest strategic shortcoming has been the prohibition of the use of U.S. and NATO-country supplied weapons by Ukraine to attack targets in Russia. Tenzer argues persuasively that victory by Ukraine will not be possible as long as this self-imposed “red line” remains in force. Military experts agree.
See Nicholas Tenzer, “American Aid, Constancy of Unconsciousness and Blindness to the Future; Why There Can Be No Full Relief,” Tenzer Strategics, April 20, 2024.
See also,
James Rowles, “Nimble. Smart. Good judgment. With a crackerjack foreign policy team. The president we need, and the president we have; Ukraine sliding toward defeat, and a world in crisis—Part I,” Trenchant Observations, April 18, 2024.
Part Two will be published soon.
Nicolas Tenser, Notre Guerre: L crime et l’oubli—pour une pensée stratégique (Paris: Éditions de l’Observatoire/Humensis, 2024).
See also,
1)Laure Mandeville, “Weit über die Ukraine hinaus ist etwas sehr viel Tiefgreifenderes im Gange”: Der politische Philosoph Nicolas Tenzer erklärt den größten Fehler im strategischen Denken des Westens: die Annahme, dass Putin in der Ukraine einen klassischen territorialen Krieg führt. Und stellt klar, dass es eine Chance gegeben hätte, den russischen Machthaber von seinem Vorhaben abzuhalten,” Die Welt, den 11. Februar 2024 (14:50 Uhr (Interview mit Nicholas Tenzer, Übersetzung von von Le Figaro);
2) Laure Mandeville, “‘Far beyond Ukraine, something much more profound is going on”; The West must recognize the extent of the “total war” that Russia’s ruler Vladimir Putin is leading against Ukraine, demands the French author and political philosopher Nicolas Tenzer in his book ‘Notre guerre”,” Die Welt, February 11, 2024 (2:50 p.m.). Interview with Nicolas Tenzer, translated from French article published in Le Figaro;
3) Laure Mandeville, “Nicolas Tenzer: ‘La question du mal est une porte d’entrée pour l’analyse stratégique’,” Le Figaro, le 1 février 2024 (18:57);
4) Laure Mandeville, “Nicolas Tenzer: ‘The question of evil is a gateway to strategic analysis’,” Le Figaro, February 1, 2024 (18:57).
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