Götterdämmerung (“Twilight of the Gods"): The international order buckles; Hamas conducts massive surprise attack on Israel, as support for Ukraine weakens
Hamas has stated that Iran gave the go-ahead for its massive surprise attack on Israel on Saturday, October 7, 2023.1 The U.S. stated Monday that neither it nor Israel has information confirming this report.2
50 years ago during the 1973 Yom Kippur War the U.S. and Russia became involved in an extremely serious nuclear confrontation. The course of war is unpredictable. The current hostilities have the potential to escalate to a similar nuclear confrontation.
These ultimate stakes should be borne in mind by all concerned. Certain reactions by Israel or Hamas, such as the announced total siege of the Gaza Strip or the execution of hostages by Hamas, could potentially draw other powers into the conflict.
The first stanza of William Butler Yeats’s famous poem, “The Second Coming", inspired by the experience of World War I, comes readily to mind:
William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)
The Second Coming (1919)3
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
We warned, many months ago, that the belief the Ukraine War could be contained and lawlessness would not spread was a great illusion. Now we are beginning to get a taste of what real international anarchy might look like.
The situation is fraught.
Hamas is supported by Iran. Many in Israel will see Hamas as acting as an agent of Iran. Under this interpretation, Hamas’s attack on Israel could be viewed as an attack by Iran on Israel. Whether Iran exercises the direction and control of Hamas necessary to make their acts those of Iran is a separate and critical question.
The Israeli responses, not only against Hamas and the Gaza Strip but also against Iran, could potentially bring Russia and the United States into the conflict. Worth recalling are the recent acts of rapprochement between Russia and Iran and Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The pursuit of peace may seem to be much harder than the pursuit of war, at least in the initial stages. Yet the consequences of war are horrific, as becomes more evident each day as war progresses.
Today would be a good day for everyone in Israel, the Middle East, and major capitals to reread Barbara Tuchman’s classic historical account, The Guns of August (1962), which analyzes how in August 1914 the nations of Europe stumbled into World War I.
The inexcusable barbarism of Hamas in launching attacks against innocent Israeli civilians has led to a delicate moment when reason and cooler heads are challenged to prevail.
Nonetheless, Israel, in responding with military force to Hamas’s brutal attacks, should be careful to comply with both the letter and the spirit of international humanitarian law, also known as the laws of war.4 A siege of the Gaza Strip cutting off food and water for over two million civilians is a medieval tactic that would appear to violate the basic principles of international humanitarian law aimed at protecting civilian populations.
Failure to follow these international law norms could cost Israel important international support and even provoke Arab nations to intervene.
Hamas and Iran may have been motivated by a desire to prevent a rapprochement between Israel and the Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia. Every effort must be made to ensure that they do not achieve this apparent objective.
Israel would do well to bear in mind the sympathies for the Palestinians of the populations of the Arab countries in the Middle East, and to avoid actions that would make a further deepening of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia and other Arab states impossible.
A starting point would be to abandon the plan of a total siege of Gaza, to reaffirm Israel’s commitment to comply with international humanitarian law, and to provide humanitarian access to supply food and water to the civilian population of the Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, support for Ukraine seems to be weakening. Ireland is essentially not providing significant assistance.5 A pro-Russian candidate and his party just won a plurality in the Slovak parliamentary elections.6
In the U.S., the candidate backed by Donald Trump to be Speaker of the House, Jim Jordan, is adamantly opposed to further military aid for Ukraine.7 The fact that Russia is applying for readmission to the U.N.Human Rights Council underlines the failure of the West to generate support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia in the so-called Global South.8
The U.N. Charter-based international legal order is under enormous stress.
James Rowles is a former Lecturer on Law at Harvard Law School and professor of international law at other universities. He received the advanced doctoral degree of Doctor of Juridical Science (SJD) in International Law from Harvard University.
See Summer Said, Benoit Faucon, and Stephen Kalin, “Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks; The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gave the final go-ahead last Monday in Beirut,” Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2023 (updated at 5:15 pm);
“NSC spokesman says Iran ‘complicit’ in Hamas terror but no evidence it helped plan attack,” PBS Newshour, October 9, 2023 (6:50 pm EDT).
The Collected Poems of W. B. Yeats (1989), Poetry Foundation.
See Richard Dannatt, “Israel cannot afford its own Iraq War; In the horror of this tragedy there are no easy answers – but Israel must appreciate the need to keep on the moral high ground,” The Telegraph, October 10, 2023 (3:31 pm)
Richard Kemp, “Leo Varadkar’s Ireland has washed its hands of Ukraine,” The Telegraph, October 7, 2023 (5:51 pm).
Andrew Higgins, “What Does a Russia-Leaning Party Win in an E.U. Nation Mean for Ukraine?” New York Times, September 30, 2023.
Josh Rogin, “MAGA Republicans outplayed Kevin McCarthy and Democrats on Ukraine aid,” Washington Post, October 6, 2023 (7:45 am EDT).
William Mauldin, “Russia Seeks Seat on U.N. Human Rights Panel After Ejection Over Ukraine War; Moscow could try to leverage grain, arms sales to win votes, analysts say,” Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2023 (12:00 pm ET).
***
See also
“Ukraine War, October 9, 2023: Conceptual errors in Anne Applebaum's article in The Atlantic concluding ‘Rules don't exist,’” The Trenchant Observer, October 9, 2023.
***
Support the Author
Your author needs your support.
You may sign up for a free subscription. To receive all of the content as soon as it is published and to support the newsletter, please upgrade to a Paid or Founding Member subscription. To do so, click on the “Subscribe now” button below.
Alternatively, you may make a contribution to the author’s Go Fund Me appeal by clicking on the last button below. Go Fund Me does not take 10% as Substack does.