[REVISED] Ukraine ceasefire; Russian asset Trump undercuts Europeans' ceasefire proposal and deadline
ALSO: Trade Court to decide on legality of Trump's tariffs
UPDATE
1)Alexander Ward, Michael R. Gordon, and Matthew Luxmoore, ”Russia and Ukraine Ratchet Up War While Trying to Show Trump They Want Peace; The two sides talked for less than an hour in Istanbul and a halt to the fighting seems out of reach for now,” Wall Street Journal, June 3, 2025 (12:09 am ET).
BACKGROUND
See,
1)James Rowles, “Eight great illusions about the war in Ukraine; ‘Cognitive occlusion’,” July 13, 2022.
2)James Rowles, “Cognitive Occlusion: Leaders, unable to face the reality of Russian aggression and barbarism in Ukraine, negotiate post-ceasefire arrangements among themselves-when there's not going to be a ceasefire,” Trenchant Observations, February 17, 2025.
3)Andrew E. Kramer, “Zelensky Demands Cease-Fire Before Agreeing to Putin’s Call for Direct Talks; Ukraine’s president is pushing for an immediate truce. President Trump questioned whether Russia’s leader wants to make a deal but urged both sides to meet this week in Turkey for talks.,” New York Times, May 11, 2025 (updated 1:16 pm ET).
4)James Marson and Jane Lytvynenko, “Zelensky Agrees to Talks With Russia, After Trump Intervention;Ukrainian president said he would be waiting for Putin at peace talks proposed by the Russian president in Istanbul,” Wall Street Journal, May 11, 2025 (Updated at 4:33 pm ET).
5)Javier G. Cuesta, “Putin desoye el ultimátum europeo para una tregua y propone una nueva negociación directa con Kiev; El presidente ruso anuncia que pedirá a Turquía que acoja nuevas conversaciones con Ucrania el 15 de mayo. Zelenski ve como “una señal positiva” que Moscú “comience a considerar el fin de la guerra,’.,”el 11 de mayo 2025 (4:28 pm EDT).
6)Javier G. Cuesta,”Putin ignores the European ultimatum for a truce and proposes a new direct negotiation with Kiev; The Russian president announces that he will ask Turkey to host new talks with Ukraine on May 15. Zelenski sees as “a positive sign’ that Moscow ‘begins to consider the end of the war”,” El País, May 11, 2025 (4:28 pm EDT).
Four leading European countries, France, Germany, the U.K., and Poland, believing they had Donald Trump’s backing, issued an ultimatum to Vladimir Putin to accept their unconditional 30-day ceasefire proposal, or face increased sanctions and expanded military aid to Ukraine.
Putinissued a call for direct top-level talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Trump’s support for Putin’s “direct talks” proposal has undercut the Europeans’ proposal and ultimatum.
The European ceasefire plan envisions the commencement of negotiations beteen Russia and Ukraine to end the war.
Everyone in the West, Europeans and Americans alike, is determined to reach a peace agreement that ends the war.
They refuse or are unable to see the realities of the current situation.1
The first is that even a successful ceasefire agreement followed by negotiations to end the war would leave Russia in the position of occupying Ukrainian territory it had conquered by military force.
Any peace settlement recognizing Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory would violate peremptory norms of international law and the United Nations Charter.
Consequently, such a peace settlement or even a “frozen conflict” under a continuation of the ceasefire would be void under international law.
Moreover, as we have written,2
What is at stake
(T)o establish a ceasefire leaving Russians in possession of territories acquired through the illegal use of force, however worded, would eviscerate the bedrock principles of the United Nations Charter and the Charter-based international legal order.
If such a precedent were established, nations would feel free to invade other countries, and retain possession of conquered territories in “frozen conflicts” established by ceasefires.
Furthermore, Putin has a solid record of breaking his promises, just as Adolf Hitler did in 1936-1939.
Under this analysis, even if Putin were to accept the Europeans’ ceasefire proposal, prospects for a viable ceasefire much less a durable peace settlement would remain dim so long as Russia occupies territory conquered by military force.
FURTHER READING
1) James Rowles, “The lawless Trump regime, a stupid bully, pressures Ukraine for an illegal ceasefire,” Trenchant Observations, March 11, 2025.
2)Phillips P.. Obrien, “Trump's Great Service To Putin; Putin’s Floor Under Trump Is Better Than His Ceiling Under Biden,” Phillips Newsletter, May 10, 2025.
3)James Fanelli, “This Obscure New York Court Is Set to Decide Fate of Trump’s Tariffs; The Court of International Trade this week will consider the legality of president’s ‘Liberation Day’, levies,” Wall Street Journal, May 11, 2025 (7:00 am ET).
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About the Author
James Rowles is a former Lecturer on Law at Harvard Law School and professor of international law at other universities.
He studied the history of Nazi Germany at Stanford, and has studied and worked on human rights, judicial reform, and access to justice projects in many countries in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and in Afghanistan and Russia. At Harvard Law School, he taught a course on “Law, Human Rights, and the Struggle for Democracy in Latin America”.
At the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) of the OAS, he worked on human rights cases involving forced disappearances, executions, and torture in a number of authoritarian countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Recent Books by the Author
James P. Rowles, The Rape of American Democracy: Republican Actions and Democratic Failures, 2016-2021 (2024). Available on Amazon, and from IngramSpark by clicking on a link here.
James P. Rowles, Don’t Be Stupid. Pay Attention, Damn It! Advice for Undecided Voters and Voters Leaning Toward Trump (2024). Available on Amazon,and from IngramSpark by clicking on a link here.
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See James Rowles, “Cognitive Occlusion: Leaders, unable to face the reality of Russian aggression and barbarism in Ukraine, negotiate post-ceasefire arrangements among themselves-when there's not going to be a ceasefire,”Trenchant Observations, February 17, 2025.
James Rowles,”[UPDATED] Russian asset Donald Trump proposes recognizing Crimea, lifting sanctions against Russia; A ceasefire or peace settlement in Ukraine at present is a dangerous illusion. Trump may be the Neville Chamberlain of the 2020's. Appeasement will not lead to ‘peace for our time’,” Trenchant Observations, April 24, 2025.