Like shooting fish in a barrel
Russia's continuing attacks on Ukrainian towns and cities
Part One—Main Article
Russian attacks are like shooting fish in a barrel; NATO needs to indirectly confront Russia by relaxing restrictions on weapons use
From The Trenchant Observer, July 14, 2022
NATO countries have imposed restrictions on the use of weapons supplied to Ukraine which prevent Ukrainians from fully exercising their inherent right of self-defense under Article 51 of the U.N. Charter. The effect has been to tie one of Ukraine’s arms behind its back, leaving its cities and towns exposed to Russian missile and artillery strikes. These attacks, which NATO countries will not allow Ukraine to defend against by striking at launching sites inside Russia, are like shooting fish in a barrel.
We are left with a situation where Russia is left free to attack Ukrainians, who cannot defend themselves and who must wait, passively, for the next murderous Russian attacks. The Russians are left free in a situation which is indeed like shooting fish in a barrel.
The U.S. has restricted the use of long-range artillery it is supplying Ukraine by not only requiring commitments from Ukraine to not use the weapons to attack targets on Russian territory, but also by restricting the range of the artillery shells supplied for use with the long-range artillery.
These artillery pieces have a range of 300 kilometers or 180 miles. The Biden administration has only furnished shells with a range of 80 kilometers or approximately 50 miles.
The reason for these restrictions is that President Joe Biden is afraid of provoking Vladimir Putin by allowing Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, thereby crossing one of Putin’s “red lines”.
These “red lines” have no status under international law, which permits Ukraine to use force in order to repel an “armed attack” on Ukraine by Russian forces. The real red lines are the prohibitions in the U.N. Charter, which Putin is crossing every day.
As Russia with its overwhelming military superiority bombs more towns and cities and seizes more territory in Ukraine, NATO and the West need to start standing up to Putin and Russia’s army if they are to avoid defeat and all its consequences.
Before it becomes necessary for NATO forces to become directly involved in confronting the Russians militarily, the U.S. and other NATO countries should at least allow Ukraine to use the weapons it supplies in full exercise of the right of self-defense under international law and the U.N. Charter, and supply Ukraine with artillery shells that enable the Ukrainians to take full advantage of the weapons’ capabilities.
Part Two—Weekly Insights and Analysis
The war goes on
From the headlines, one would think not much happened in the war in Ukraine this week. The Russians have entered a “pause” in their major offensive activities after conquering all of Luhansk province They are simply restoring and reorganizing their fighting forces for the next offensive operation. Meanwhile, they continue missile attacks against civilian targets in towns and cities across the country.1
The Ukrainians, for their part, have been making effective use of the HIMARS long-range artillery pieces they have received from the U.S. and other countries, whose numbers however remain in the single or lower double digits. The Ukrainians have successfully destroyed Russian fuel and supply depots far behind the front lines, aiming to cripple the Russian forces by cutting off their supply lines.
Arms for Ukraine—promised and delivered
As the news of the war recedes from the headlines and seemingly everyone’s consciousness, Western officials appear to be considering how a peace settlement with Putin might be reached.2 The U.S. Britain, Poland and the Baltic states have led the actual delivery of weapons to Ukraine. Germany, France, and Italy have made pledges but not delivered much as yet.
The level and pace of weapons deliveries seem to provide important clues to the war aims of the respective donor countries.
Steven Erlanger, the chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe of the New York Times, based in Brussels, published a magisterial article in the Times on July 153 detailing the differences in war aims and actual deliveries of weapons to Ukraine by countries in various factions within NATO and the EU.
Erlanger writes,
There is the war on the ground in Ukraine and the war over weapons supplies, on which the first war depends.
In the weapons war, there is a significant disparity between the flood of arms supplied by Britain, Poland and the United States, and what the rest of Europe is providing, which has raised the persistent question of whether some countries are slow-walking supplies to bring about a shorter war and quicker negotiations.
The actual figures are quite shocking.
New data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy provide numbers which are current through July 1. Though stated in euros they are roughly equivalent to dollars given the current parity in the two currencies. The figures are not perfect because some countries like France prefer to keep the details of their deliveries secret. According to these figures, France has promised and delivered only 160 million euros’ worth of equipment.
The figures show the U.S. has announced 6.37 billion euros in military aid, but only delivered 2..4 billion euros’ worth so far.
Germany has promised 620 million, but only delivered 290 million euros of equipment. Poland has promised and delivered 1.8 billion euros of equipment, much of it from stocks of old Soviet weapons, while Britain has delivered one billion euros’ worth of a promised 1.12 billion of equipment.
Erlanger reports,
“The Kiel numbers4 are quite shocking, to be honest,” said Guntram Wolff, an economist and the new director of the German Council on Foreign Relations. European support levels are below 0.2 or 0.3 percent of gross domestic product, he said. “On the one hand, it’s a lot of money, but it’s also quite small given what’s at stake” — given Russia’s effort “to take over another country in Europe.”
The American Front
One cannot escape the thought that politics in the U.S. are drifting toward disaster. Even if the Democrats retain a majority in the House or the Senate, it is likely to be a weak victory. Donald Trump and his minions will remain as a mortal threat to American democracy, unless of course Merrick Garland and the Justice Department start prosecuting Trump and his co-conspirators in high places.
This seems unlikely. After dragging his feet for 18 months, it is hard to imagine Garland metamorphosing into an energetic prosecutor determined to uphold the law no matter who has violated it.
With regard to the prosecution of Trump, despite all the analysis it seems that nothing will wake the Democrats from their catatonic stupor.
The objective need for an extraordinary leader
Given the threats to the nation and the world, the desire for an extraordinary leader to appear is understandable. In view of the Russian assault on the U.N. Charter and the values and institutions of our civilization, we believe the objective need is for a leader of the calibre of Winston Churchill.5
However vain and illusory the hope for such a leader may be, it underlines the extreme seriousness of the moment.
Steve Gutterman, "The Week In Russia: Civilian Deaths And 'A New, Dark Page Of Repression," RFE/RL (Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, July 15, 2022 (06:35 GMT);
See ,
(1) “Ukraine War, July 15, 2022: Will NATO countries back Ukraine in a protracted war?” The Trenchant Observer, July 15, 2022;
(2) “Ukraine War, July 13, 2022: Will Europe cave in to Putin?” The Trenchant Observer, July 13, 2022.
Steven Erlanger, “Gaps in Arms Supplies to Ukraine Point to Countries’ Divergent Strategies; Beyond logistical issues, the uneven flow of arms to Ukraine hints at differences among allies about whether Russia should be punished or eventually accommodated,” New York Times, July 15, 2022 (12:01 a.m. ET).
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Ukraine Support Tracker; A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
“The West needs a leader like Winston Churchill to lead us to victory over Russia after January 2025,” Trenchant Observations, July 12, 2022.
Articles published this week
In case you missed it
Thursday, July 14
“Eight great illusions about the war in Ukraine; ‘Cognitive occlusion,’” July 14, 2022
Tuesday, July 12
“The West needs a leader like Winston Churchill to lead us to victory over Russia after January 2025,” July 12, 2022
For earlier articles, scroll to the bottom of any article and click on the link to the article you want to read
Analysis is the word I ment to type.
A good article with both summary and Annalisis.
I would love to be reading it in the NYT