Biden's ebullient triumphalism in Stockholm, and the grim reality of a stalled counter-offensive
A rudderless ship of state
Doctor of Juridical Science (SJD) in International Law, Harvard University
We are always looking behind the headlines in an effort to track what is really going on at the level of events and decisions that might affect the outcome of Russia’s war of aggression and Ukraine’s war of self-defense.
Recently we were struck by the triumphalism of President Joe Biden’s remarks in Stockholm following the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. The President blithely asserted that Vladimir Putin had lost the war in Ukraine. This must have sounded delusional to Ukrainian leaders and Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefront.
My first association was with George W. Bush’s triumphant declaration of victory in the Iraq war, made at sea on an aircraft carrier.
My second was with Biden’s declaration that the American withdrawal from Afghanistan was a “great success”. Biden’s characterization of the most catastrophic foreign policy decision by a Western leader since Munich in 1938 reveals, again, Biden’s appallingly bad judgment on foreign policy matters.
The problem and the great risk is that Biden may believe his own propaganda, which is astronomically removed from the truth.
This tone of misplaced triumphalism has the effect of blocking any zerious consideration of strategic errors made and course adjustments needed.
One need not be a brilliant analyst to grasp that Biden’s delays in delivering needed weapons systems to Ukraine, and his insistance that Ukraine not be allowed to strike targets in Russia in full exercise of its right of self-defense under international law and Article 51 of the U.N. Charter, have had a devastating impact on Ukraine’s ability to prosecute and win the war.
The counter-offensive is stalled. Why?
Part of the answer lies in the incredible dithering and delays that have occurred in furnishing Ukraine the weapons and the freedom to use them that it needs. Unconscionable delays in decision making in the West (e.g., Leopard II tanks, F-16’s) have given Russia the time it needed to construct incredibly effective defensive barriers and positions in the South and the East.
As a result, the momentum Ukraine acquired in its great advances in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions was lost.
Democrats are loathe to criticize Biden’s foreign policicy strategies and decisions, for essentially electoral reasons.
Republicans are so shrilly divided that they are incapable of formulating a coherent critique of Biden’s policies, much less offer an intelligent alternative of their own.
No one listens to foreign policy experts and elites any more.
Rudderless, the ship of state drifts unguided through turbulent waters and perilous straits.
***
Support the Author
There are two ways to support the author, so that he can continue to publish articles and books dealing with the war in Ukraine and other pressing international issues, including articles published here in the Trenchant Observations Newsletter and in The Trenchant Observer blog.
First, you may make a contribution to his Go Fund Me appeal by clicking on the last button and link below.
Second, you may order a paid subscription or upgrade to a Founding Member subscription to Trenchant Observations, by clicking on the “Subscribe” button below. (Substack takes 10% of the subscription amount.)
Finally, to help build the audience for Trenchant Observations, you can share aricles you like with your friends and colleagues, by clicking on the “Share” button.
See also “Why I care about the war in Ukraine,” Trenchant Observations, June 26, 2023.