Why we are losing the war in Ukraine

From The Trenchant Observer, June 28, 2022

The response of the West to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been impressive, particularly that of the United States and certain Eastern European countries. In terms of weapons and financial aid, as well as sanctions, the response has been extraordinary.

But it may not be enough to defeat Russia.

On the diplomatic front, the West has failed miserably in gaining support from the non-allied countries (frequently referred to as the South) for condemnation of Russia and participation in the sanctions regime.

While unity among NATO allies and EU members has been largely maintained, it has been at the expense of a slowly evolving consensus which has not matched the tempo of the war and the requirements of the battlefield.

Moreover, it seemed to have reached its limits, with Turkey's Erdogan blocking Finnish and Swedish membership in NATO—until Tuesday, June 28, when Erdogan agreed to drop his opposition on the eve of a NATO summit in Madrid.

The greatest shortcoming of the West has been to treat the war in Ukraine like a skirmish rather than as an all-out war for our survival and that of our civilization, including the United Nations Charter and international law.

President Joe Biden and the West have assumed that they can counter Putin and defend Ukraine successfully without themselves becoming involved militarily in the conflict.

This assumption has been dubious from the very beginning.

Biden and the West have assumed that Russian military aggression can be stopped by economic sanctions, despite the fact that there is virtually no example in history where this has been done.

Defeat looms.

What could the world look like after a Russian victory in Ukraine?

We may be about to find out, though there is always the possibility that the West could get its act together and act forcefully to stave off the Russian challenge to our civilization.

But if the West doesn't get its act together, what is the world likely to look like?

Military expenditures will claim an increasing share of almost all nations' resources.

International trade and supply chains will be massively disrupted.

The kind of international cooperation necessary to meet the world's climate challenges will not be possible.

Authoritarian regimes, leveraging the power of technology, will solidify their control over their populations.

Freedom of speech and access to information will be curtailed in many countries. Internet firewalls will grow up behind the borders of not only China and Russia but also in an uncreasing number of countries with authoritarian regimes.

The South China Sea will become a Chinese lake.

China will invade Taiwan and incorporate it into the P.R.C.

Countries will seek military security by joining alliances, or by leaving them.

Benevolent foreign assistance and humanitarian assistance will shrink, while disasters caused by war and climate change become more common as do failures of the international community to respond effectively.

As nuclear weapons and new weapons of mass destruction proliferate, the risks of nuclear war and other calamities will grow. Without an effective prohibition of the use of force, the likelihood of such events will increase dramatically.

In the face of this somber outlook, what can a citizen do?

The answers to this question are not clear. But they all involve action by concerned citizens that goes far beyond the resignation to which a simple awareness of these trends could lead.

The first priority must be to take action that helps the West get its act together and to move resolutely, and realistically, to stop Putin.

For suggestions on actions an individual can take, see

James Rowles, "How to Forget the War in Ukraine," Trenchant Observations newsletter (Substack), .June 26, 2022.

While this article paints a dark picture, we must bear in mind that the only thing worse than “bad news” is “good news” that is wrong.

Real news, however disheartening, can always lead to action that changes the course of events.