Western support slips in war to save the U.N. Charter and International Law

Plus weekly Insights and Analysis section

PART ONE: MAJOR ARTICLE

Western support slips in war to save the U.N. Charter and International Law

Dispatches

1) Christian Esch, “Versprechungen helfen nicht auf dem Schlachtfeld; Am Donnerstag reist Olaf Scholz endlich nach Kiew. Was erwartet die ukrainische Regierung vom Bundeskanzler? Ein Gespräch mit Selenskyj-Berater Mychajlo Podoljak. Ein Interview von Christian Esch,” Der Spiegel, den 15. Juni 2022(15.10 Uhr);

2) “Ukraine War, April 28, 2022 (II): The cost of delay–heavy weapons may not reach the front in time,” The Trenchant Observer, April 28, 2022;

3) Liz Sly, “Estonian leader urges faster help for Ukraine amid signs of war fatigue,” Washington Post, June 16, 2022 (11:30 a.m. EDT).

Weapons promises and deployed weapons

What the Ukraine needs is not promises of future weapons deliveries, but long-range artillery pieces and ammunition, and other munitions, actually deployed on the front lines in the Donbas where the battle is raging.

The Munich parallels

Short-sighted political leaders like Ėdouard Duvalier of France and Neville Chamberlain of Britain sought to maintain “peace in our time” by making territorial concessions to Adolf Hitler in the infamous Munich Pact in September 1938. That agreement was also endorsed by Italy’s leader and Hitler’s ally, Benuto Mussolini.

Duvalier and Chamberlain may not have understood how making territorial concessions (which were not even theirs to make) would undermine the entire international legal order upon which the peace of Europe was built.

Now Olaf Scholz of Germany and Emmanuel Macron of France and Mario Draghi of Italy are considering making territorial concessions (which are not even theirs to make) to Vladimir Putin of Russia, and pressuring Ukraine to sccept such “concessions” in order to restore “peace in our time”.

As Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has wryly suggested, why don’t they give up their own territories? Sly quotes her as follows:

“I worry that we hear calls for peace negotiations, which very generally means Ukraine should give away some of its territory,” Kallas said. “The big question has to be why Ukraine has to give up territory. Maybe those who want to push them into a peace negotiation should give up their own territories.”

The parallels with Munich are extraordinary.

The full article will be available to all Sunday morning.

In 1938, Hitler threatened military invasion of Czechoslovakia to seize the German-speaking Sudetenland.

In 2014, Putin actually invaded Ukraine to seize the Crimea and parts of the Russian-speaking provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk, installing puppet governments in the portions of these provinces he controlled.

In 2014, Germany and France agreed to the status quo in the Donbas, in exchange for a “peace process” established under the Minsk I Protocol of September 5, 2014 and the Minsk II Agreement of February 12, 2015.

Under the “peace” that followed these mini-Munich agreements, Germany continued to deepen its dependence on Russian gas, and everyone believed that “business as usual” with Russia could proceed.

On September 1, 1939, Hitler and Germany invaded Poland.

On September 17, 1939, the Soviet Union acting pursuant to the Molotov-Rippentropp Pact of August 23 invaded Poland from the East.

On February 24, 2022, Putin and Russia invaded Ukraine.

In 1938, England and France forced Czechoslovakia to accept the cession of the Sudetenland to Germany.

Now, Germany and France and Italy appear to be considering forcing Ukraine to cede the Crimea and its territories in the Donbas and the South to Russia.

In 1939, the leverage of France and Britain on Czechoslovakia was their willingness to defend Czechoslovakia against Germany.

In 2022, the leverage of France and Germany (and their NATO partners) over Ukraine is their willingness to provide heavy weapons in the numbers and time frames required to resist Russian forces.

Germany has already exercised this pressure by failing to deliver heavy weapons to Ukraine as promised. France has not delivered much military aid, though recently it has promised to do so.

The greatest flaw in the approach of U.S. and NATO countries to countering Russian aggression has been a fundamental failure to grasp that what is at stake is not only the future of Ukraine, but also the future of the United Nations Charter and international law.

This is the same mistake Daladier and Chamberlain made at Munich in 1938.

What has changed since 1938 is that the legal principles upholding the international order have been firmly and more explicitly established in the U.N. Charter and international law.

First, agreements secured through the illegal use of force are void under international law and have no legal effect.

Second, territorial gains acquired by military conquest may not be recognized and have no legal effect under international law.

Both of these principles are part of a kind of super-law known as jus cogens or peremptory norms of international law from which there can be no exceptions, not even by agreement.

Before Scholz and Macron and other leaders give further thought to trading territorial “concessions” by Ukraine in exchange for the promises of a known liarn and war criminal like Vladimir Putin, they should reflect long and hard on what is at stake in Ukraine and what is, essentially, a war to save the U.N. Charter and international law.

As Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has suggested, if they want to make territorial concessions they should consider which of their own territories they would be willing to cede to Russia in exchange for “peace in our time”.

PART TWO:

WEEKLY INSIGHTS AND ANALYSIS SECTION

Who should call the signals on the NATO/EU team in the battle with Russia?

Dispatches

1) Kacper Pempel, "Polish president says calls with Putin like speaking to Hitler -Bild," REUTERS, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-president-says-calls-with-putin-like-speaking-hitler-bild-2022-06-09/">June 9, 2022</a> (3:40 AM EDT);

2) Paul Ronsheimer and Giorgos Moutafis (Fotos): "INTERVIEW: Angst vor Putins Atomwaffen? 'Dann sollten wir uns alle gleich ergeben,'" Bild, den 9. Juni 2022 (15:42 Uhr);

No quarterback, or 11 quarterbacks?

The West is like a football team without a quarterback, 11 players calling the signals. Or maybe like a football team with 11 players who think they are all quarterbacks.

Is it any wonder that Russia, the opposing team, knows where the blocks are going to be made and where the holes will open up so you can red-dog (rush and tackle) the quarterback?

It's an easy game for Vladimir Putin, who alone is calling the plays for the Russian team.

Is this any way to conduct a war?

Some of the quarterbacks don't really grasp that they are players in a real war, and just want things to get back to normal. They will be happy with a tie ball game.

Others want to win.

Some don't care, as long as the game ends soon and they can go to the after-game parties.

When there is a timeout during the game, one or another of the players on the NATO/EU team walks across the line of scrimmage and goes and talks with the quarterback of the Russian team out of everyone's earshot.

After a huddle of the players on the NATO/EU team, an end sends hand signals to the quarterback of the Russian team and points to where he is going to run. During an official time out, he has a short conversation out of earshot with the quarterback of the Russian team.

Is this any way to run a football team?

Or the NATO/EU team as it tries to mount effective opposition to the Russian forces which at quarterback Putin's command have invaded Ukraine?

President Andrzej Ruda of Poland doesn't think so, and has called out French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for their frequent telephone calls to Putin. In his interview in the German Bild newspaper, Duda said:

Bild: Glauben Sie, dass Olaf Scholz zu viel Angst vor Putin hat? Scholz‘ und Macrons Argument ist, dass es nur durch Verhandlung eine Lösung geben kann.

Duda: „Ich bin erstaunt über die ganzen Gespräche, die geführt werden mit Putin im Moment. Von Kanzler Scholz, von Präsident Emmanuel Macron. Diese Gespräche bringen nichts. Was bewirken sie? Sie bewirken nur eine Legitimierung eines Menschen, der verantwortlich ist für die Verbrechen, die die russische Armee in der Ukraine begeht. Er ist verantwortlich dafür. Er hat die Entscheidung getroffen, die Truppen dorthin zu schicken. Ihm unterstehen die Befehlshaber. Wladimir Putin. Hat jemand so mit Adolf Hitler während des 2. Weltkriegs gesprochen? Hat jemand gesagt, dass Adolf Hitler sein Gesicht wahren muss? Dass wir so vorgehen sollen, dass es nicht erniedrigend ist für Adolf Hitler? Ich habe solche Stimmen nicht gehört.“

Revised Google English translation

Bild: Do you think Olaf Scholz is too afraid of Putin? Scholz' and Macron's argument is that there can only be a solution through negotiation.

Duda: "I'm amazed at all the talks that are being held with Putin at the moment. By Chancellor Scholz, by President Emmanuel Macron. These talks are useless. What do they do? They only legitimize a person responsible for the crimes committed by the Russian army in Ukraine. He is responsible for it. He made the decision to send the troops there. The commanders are subordinate to him. Vladimir Putin. Did anyone talk to Adolf Hitler like that during WWII? Did someone say Adolf Hitler had to save face? That we should proceed in such a way that it is not humiliating for Adolf Hitler? I have not heard such voices."

After the great show of European solidarity by the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, and Romania traveling to Kyiv and meeting there with Volodymyr Zelensky, Olaf Scholz called Putin unapologetically, and vowed he would continue to do so in the future.

Who could trust any of these leaders to keep conversations among themselves confidential when they turn right around and go and call Putin on the phone?

Does Putin need any information on the thinking of NATO and EU leaders other than what they in their individual and sometimes joint telephone calls provide?

Given this reality, of 11 quarterbacks unapologetically talking on the side to the quarterback of the Russian team, is there any reason for Putin to think he cannot stoke divisions among the NATO/EU team's members, and even play a successful hand in the selection of that team's new quarterback in 2024?

If this scenaio is allowed to continue, where would you place your bets on which team is going to prevail in the present game of war?

Key events of the week

The big events of the week were the travel to Kiev by the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, and Romania, their meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky and his team, Scholz's call to Putin after the visit, and on Friday, June 17, 2022 the recommendation of the EU Commission that Ukraine be designated as a candidate for membership in the EU. All 27 members must now agree for this recommendation to become a formal decision.

In the United States, the hearings of the January 6 Committee dominated the news, with many striking revelations.

Meanwhile, the Russians continued to advance in the battle for the Donbas, as Ukraine called for the faster delivery of more heavy weapons, particularly long-range artillery.

What the Ukrainians need much more than promises of future weapons deliveries is long-range artillery deployed on the front lines in the Donbas, now.

The earlier dithering in Washington and in Western capitals is now taking a heavy toll.

In the background, despite avowals of unconditional solidarity with Ukraine, attention increasingly is focusing on the issue of what kind of concessions Ukraine might have to make to secure a ceasefire and an end to the hostilities.

Prime Minister Kaja Kallas of Estonia, resisting calls for a ceasefire now, put it best when she asked those pushing for territorial concessions to consider which of their own territories they might want to cede to Russia to secure peace.