Republican voters support military aid for Ukraine; The need for unified allied leadership

Republican voters’ support for military aid to Ukraine

Although 11 Republican senators and 57 House Republicans voted against the military aid bill for Ukraine in May, Republican voters seem to support such aid at levels close to those of all Americans.

According to a Pew Research poll from May, 71% of Americans and 68% of Republicans support sending military equipment and weapons to Kyiv. Sixty-four percent of Americans and 60% of Republicans favor stationing U.S. military forces in North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries near Ukraine. These numbers persist despite voters’ anxiety about nation-building and so-called endless wars.¹

While these figures do not reveal the comparative level of support as between Republicans and Democrats, they do suggest that Republican victories in the November elections would not necessarily mean a reduction in military support for Ukraine though this is certainly a possibility.

If the Republicans were able to break the stranglehold Donald Trump and his supporters have on the Republican Party and to return to more traditional Republican policies opposing Russian expansionism, and to select a candidate for president in 2024 who is strong on defense, the Democrats would face an uphill battle in the presidential election. Regardless of who the Democratic candidate is, given the weak foreign policy record of president Joe Biden, they would face a formidable challenge.

Those of course are a lot of big “ifs”.

The need for a unified allied command in the war to stop Putin

Adapter from The Trenchant Observer, June 17, 2022

We have pointed out how freelancing by different Western leaders, who on their own initiative reach out to Vladimir Putin or make statements about the terms of a settlement or ceasefire, or the importance of not humiliating Putin (Emmanuel Macron) or of creating an off-ramp for the Russian leader, fundamentally undermines the position of the coalition supporting Ukraine.²

Steven Erlanger has pointed out that those pushing for a negotiated solution to the conflict are precisely the leaders of countries which have contributed little military aid to Ukraine (France) or have promised substantial aid but dragged their feet in actually delivering it (Germany).³

The West is like a football team without a quarterback, or with 11 players calling the signals. Or maybe like a football team with 11 players many of whom think they are all quarterbacks.

Is it any wonder that Russia, the opposing team, knows where the blocks are going to be made and where the holes will open up so you can red-dog (rush and tackle) the quarterback?

Is this any way to conduct a war?

Some of the quarterbacks don’t really grasp that they are players in a real war, and just want things to get back to normal. They will be happy with a tie ball game.

Others want to win.

When there is a timeout during the game, one or another of the players on the NATO/EU team walks across the line of scrimmage and goes and talks with the quarterback of the Russian team out of everyone’s earshot.

After a huddle of the players on the NATO/EU team, an end sends hand signals to the quarterback of the Russian team and points to where he is going to run. During an official time out, he has a short conversation out of earshot with the quarterback of the Russian team.

Is this any way to run a football team?

Or the NATO/EU team as it tries to mount effective opposition to the Russian forces which at Quarterback Putin’s command have invaded Ukraine?

President Andrzej Ruda of Poland doesn’t think so, and has called out French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for their frequent telephone calls to Putin. In a June interview in the German Bild newspaper,⁴ Duda said:

Revised Google translation

Bild: Do you think Olaf Scholz is too afraid of Putin? Scholz’ and Macron’s argument is that there can only be a solution through negotiation.

Duda: “I’m amazed at all the talks that are being held with Putin at the moment. By Chancellor Scholz, by President Emmanuel Macron. These talks are useless. What do they do? They only legitimize a person responsible for the crimes committed by the Russian army in Ukraine. He is responsible for it. He made the decision to send the troops there. The commanders are subordinate to him. Vladimir Putin. Did anyone talk to Adolf Hitler like that during WWII? Did someone say Adolf Hitler had to save face? That we should proceed in such a way that it is not humiliating for Adolf Hitler? I have not heard such voices.”

After the great show of European solidarity by the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, and Romania traveling to Kyiv and meeting there with Volodymyr Zelensky, Olaf Scholz called Putin unapologetically, and vowed he would continue to do so in the future.

Who could trust any of these leaders to keep conversations among themselves confidential when they turn right around and go and call Putin on the phone?

Does Putin need any information on the thinking of NATO and EU leaders other than what they in their individual and sometimes joint telephone calls provide?

Given this reality, of 11 quarterbacks many of whom are unapologetically talking on the side to the quarterback of the Russian team, is there any reason for Putin to think he cannot stoke divisions among the NATO/EU team’s members, and even play a successful hand in the selection of that team’s new quarterback in 2024?

If this scenaio is allowed to continue, where would you place your bets on which team is going to prevail in the present game of war?

The above analysis points to one of the gravest defects in the strategy of NATO and allied countries to stop Putin and Russian aggression in Ukraine:

No one is in charge.

There is no allied war command.

There is no coordinated diplomatic command.

It is very much as if on D-Day (June 6, 1944) each national military contingent were under the control of each nation’s military command.

Or as if, at any point in the war, each country’s president were free to fly off to Berlin or Berchtesgaden to meet with Adolf Hitler, or to make an uncoordinated telephone call to him whenever they wanted.

This must be changed.

***

1. Michael Allen, “Will the GOP Abandon Ukraine? Republican voters will support intelligently directed aid in the war against Russia,” Wall Street Journal, July 15, 2022 (6:38 pm ET).

2. “Ukraine War, June 17, 2022: Who should call the signals on the NATO/EU team in the battle with Russia?” The Trenchant Observer, June 17, 2022.

3. Steven Erlanger, “Gaps in Arms Supplies to Ukraine Point to Countries’ Divergent Strategies; Beyond logistical issues, the uneven flow of arms to Ukraine hints at differences among allies about whether Russia should be punished or eventually accommodated,” New York Times, July 15, 2022 (12:01 a.m. ET).

4. Paul Ronsheimer and Giorgos Moutafis (Fotos): “INTERVIEW: Angst vor Putins Atomwaffen? ‘Dann sollten wir uns alle gleich ergeben,'” Bild, den 9. Juni 2022 (15:42 Uhr).