Putin's current calculations; And a bit of Satire--Only humor will get us through
PUTIN’S CALCULATIONS
Adapted from The Trenchant Observer, June 9, 2022
Dispatches
See,
1) Catherine Belton, “Putin thinks West will blink first in war of attrition, Russian elites say; The Kremlin is seeking to ramp up economic pressure to erode foreign support for Ukraine,” Washington Post, June 3, 2022 (3:00 a.m. EDT).
We imagine today what Vladimir Putin’s current thinking might be about the future course of the war in Ukraine. First, we take a look back to 2014.
For an imagined look inside Putin’s head in 2014, see,
1) “Inside Putin’s Brain—Part III: The Principle of “I make believe, you make believe”, the EU’s New Sanctions, and the Minsk Protocol — with Putin’s (imagined) annotations on full text (in English),” The Trenchant Observer, September 9, 2014;
2) “Inside Putin’s Brain: Musings on the Ukraine and what is going on inside his head — Part II,” The Trenchant Observer, September 3, 2014;
3) “Inside Putin’s Brain: Musings on the Ukraine and what is going on inside his head — Part I,” The Trenchant Observer, September 2, 2014.
Imagined Musings: Inside Putin’s Brain in June 2022
Following are Putin’s imagined musings as he prepares for a meeting with Sergey Lavrov, his foreign minister.
Everyone here or at least too many people here doubted the wisdom of my bet that the U.S. and NATO and the EU would get tired of supporting Ukraine with weapons and money, as the war dragged on and the bill for their support rose.
But I was right! Even Lavrov will have to admit it!
Ah! the foreign leaders! How they came to me, begging me to not invade Ukraine, sometimes with crocodile tears in their eyes. Their visits were useful, though, because they gave me precise information about the divisions among them.
Now, since our Special Military Operation began, they are coming to visit me again. Like Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, who was the first to break the ice. He told his audience in Austria he came to lecture me, but he really came to discuss elements of a possible peace deal—and to advance his own political interests back home.
That’s what they all want.
Emmanuel Macron calls me all the time to explore ideas for a peace deal. I can use him. He urges the West to avoid “the humiliation of Putin”. All he was thinking about when he called was winning the presidential election in April and the legislative elections in June.
There are a lot of people in France who like me and who like Russia. Marine Le Pen. Jean-Luc Mélanchon, who wants to withdraw from NATO and undermine the EU by picking and choosing which treaties to follow. He recognized our annexation of the Crimea, and has opposed EU cooperation with Ukraine. His group won about the same number of votes as Macron’s governing party in the first-round legislative elections last week.
Half the voters in France favor candidates who want to weaken NATO and the EU!
Viktor Orbán came to see me earlier to get a special gas deal for Hungary, which I was happy to give him. In return, he slows up or opposes EU sanctions against Russia as much as he can. He has a lot of power because the EU can only act by a unanimous vote of its 27 members.
Then there is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey. He may be able to block Swedish and Finnish accession to NATO since Turkey is a NATO member and everyone has to vote in favor of admission.
He’s also being useful as I play with the Europeans and the international people who are worried about famine in Africa and other places.
Will I agree to let Ukraine ship its grain out through Black Sea ports, or won’t I? I love this game! I can get them to all focus on just this, and forget everything else. The point is: I HAVE THE POWER!
African Union President Macky Sall was just here to discuss the grain shipments, and African relations with Russia. With our Wagner group we have a strong military presence in a number of African countries. So they have to take Russia into account.
Even U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres came to visit me. He wanted to talk about humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of people from Mariupol and other cities. I can play that game! We played it brilliantly in Syria. It distracts all the public attention while we proceed with our military actions.
The international pressures on the U.S. and the West are going to grow enormously.
Leaders in the West will not be able to resist the political pressures that result from world famine and the refugee flows to Europe that famine causes.
When I sent a million refugees fleeing Syria to Germany, Ángela Merkel understood the game. Germany and Turkey, with my approval, reached an agreement to keep most of the refugees in Turkey instead of sending them on to Germany. And she supported the Nordstream II gas pipeline project, and Germany’s great reliance on Russian gas.
As famine and war send millions of refugees fleeing and looking for food, these can have a major impact on politics in EU and NATO countries. When these millions arrive on their frontiers, leaders in these countries might want to lift all of the sanctions, and finally accept the Russian annexation of territory that they claimed belonged to Ukraine. Actually, it was Soviet territory all the time and before that territory of the Russian Empire.
Then there’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany. There are enough “friends of Putin” in his Social Democratic Party (SPD) to maintain his interest in having good relations with Russia. After all, he’s an old friend of my buddy Gerhard Schroeder, the former German Chancellor who I had working at Gazprom.
Scholz will push for a ceasefire along with Macron, as soon as I’m ready. After we have achieved our objectives in the Donbass. We can annex Kherson and the “land bridge” to the Crimea including Mariupol. We can accept the applications of the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk to join the Russian Federation. Then maybe we can have a ceasefire to give us time to get sanctions relief and rebuild our army.
Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélanchon are not through doing useful work in France. Mélanchon’s group could even win a majority in Parliament and he could become Prime Minister. Even if that doesn’t happen, they should be a drag on Macron.
We have friends in the domestic opposition in other countries.
Prime Minister Kaja Kallas of Estonia, for example, is facing electoral challenges from parties friendly to Russia.
In the United States, the Republicans are likely to take both the Senate and the House in the elections this November. I have a lot of friends in the Republican Party including, of course, Donald Trump. They can help put the breaks on Joe Biden.
And if they win the presidency in 2024, whether with Trump or with one of his supporters, that will be the end of the ball game, and I win!
If the U.S. stops leading the coalition supplying arms and financial aid to Ukraine, the coalition will fall apart.
I win! Russia wins! The modern Peter the Great wins! Large chunks of the Russian Empire will have been restored.
We can pick up the other pieces later on. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, all parts of the Soviet Union.
Anyway, the leaders in the West will grow weary of the price they are paying to support Ukraine, and the sanctions will be lifted. We’ll regain access to the computer chips and other technology we need to rebuild our arms industry and our military.
We just have to bide our time, and let the Russian army keep taking Ukrainian territory, one piece at a time.
Our plan to take Kiev didn’t work out, because of the incompetent officials and generals in the intelligence services and in the military.
Well, things didn’t work out well in Chechnya, at first, either. We had setbacks. But no one could stop the Russian army! We rule Chechnya now. We will rule Kiev!
No one believed my bold plan for Ukraine would work. But it is working!
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SATIRE—ONLY HUMOR WILL GET US THROUGH
From “Ukraine War, June 10, 2022: SATIRE–Zelensky: “Where are the long-range artillery weapons? We need them NOW in the Donbas.” Biden: “We have a ‘Tiger Team’ working on that. What room are they in? Or are they working in the Arlington office?”; Germany may not deliver weapons, but at least they have droll humor,” The Trenchant Observer, June 10, 2022.
See,
Ellen Nakashima and Ashley Parker, “Inside the White House preparations for a Russian invasion; A ‘Tiger Team’ of administration officials has spent the past several months preparing a clear series of responses, gaming out scenarios from cyberattacks and limited intervention to an invasion of Ukraine,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022 (6:00 p.m. EST).
Excerpt from a conversation between President Joe Biden and a White House aide, June 10, 2022
White House aide: "I'm sorry to report, Mr. President, we have a problem. We didn't want to give the Ukrainians the long-range MLRS artillery, because they could have attacked targets in Russia with them."
President Biden: "Yeah, yeah, I know. They have a range of 300 kilometers or 180 miles. But I thought we fixed that problem, by getting them to agree not to use them against Russia. We also made sure (smiling broadly) by only giving them artillery shells with a range of 80 kilometers."
White House aide: "Right, Sir. That was the brilliant solution the 'Tiger Team' working on 'heavy weapons delivery and World War III' came up with."
President Biden: "Then what's the problem?"
White House aide: "Zelensky is going ballistic because the weapons can't be used in the battle for the Donbas, which Ukraine is losing--because the MLRS artillery hasn’t been deployed yet."
President Biden: "Why hasn’t it been deployed?"
White House aide: "Well, Sir, there was a mistake. They sent the artillery for delivery to Ukraine, but with the wrong artillery shells--limited to a 40 km. range instead of an 80 km. range. When the artillery arrived in Poland, our military officials decided to delay the delivery to Ukraine until the 40 km. shells could be replaced with 80 km. shells."
President Biden: "(expletives deleted). Where are the God-damned artillery pieces now?"
"White House aide: "They're in Poland, Sir, waiting for the 80 km. shells."
President Biden: "I thought the 'Tiger Team' working on 'heavy weapons delivery and World War III' had worked out the details, taking care not to provoke Putin."
White House aide: "In the military, Sir, mistakes happen."
President Biden: "Where is that damned Tiger Team? What room are they in? Or are they working in the Arlington office?"
White House aide: "I don't know, Sir. There are so many Tiger Teams."
President Biden: "Well, find out, and get them in my office immediately! Have they located the 80 km. shells?
White House aide: “I’ll get them in immediately, Sir. I don’t know if they’ve located the shells yet.”
President Biden: “Well, tell Zelensky we're working on it."
***