Cognitive Occlusion: Leaders, unable to face the reality of Russian aggression and barbarism in Ukraine, negotiate post-ceasefire arrangements among themselves-when there's not going to be a ceasefire

When reality is too terrible to behold

Note of appreciation. Many thanks to Susan for her contribution to the GoFundMe appeal.

BACKGROUND

1)James Rowles, “Eight great illusions about the war in Ukraine; ‘Cognitive occlusion’,” Trenchant Observations, July 14, 2022.

2)James Rowles, “Ceasefire in Lebanon and Israel; "Cognitive Occlusion" and Ukraine ceasefire illusions; and soon a likely Russian asset in the White House; "Cognitive Occlusion" and the inability to see things right in front of us that are too terrible to behold, Trenchant Observations, November 29, 2024.

3)James Rowles, “Suppressed Thought: Ukraine and the West could lose the war–-What a Russian victory would mean,” Trenchant Observations, February 8, 2023.

Cognitive Occlusion is a phenomenon by which the mind blocks you from seeing what is right in front of you when the subject is too terrible to behold. See the article by Borja Lasheras in Spanish and English translation in the FURTHER READING Section below.

The phenomenon has blocked the vision of Western leaders since Russia first launched its expanded invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

It is operating at full strength right now, as Donald Trump under the illusion of his omnipotence pressures Ukraine to make concessions (or he makes concessions for them) in his push to begin negotiations over the future of Ukraine with Russia—without the participation of either Ukraine or its European partners.

Readers should bear in mind several facts.

First, Trump is believed by experts to be a “Russian asset” who is now doing the Kremlin’s bidding on Ukraine.

See James Rowles, “The Kremlin in the White House: ‘Russia’s man in Washington’; Donald Trump, moves to undermine defense of Ukraine,” Trenchant Observations, December 12, 2024.

Second, there can be no ceasefire or peace settlement that leaves Russia in possession of Ukrainian territories that it has conquered by military force. Any agreement reached by Russia and Trump and imposed on Ukraine would be void under peremptory norms of international law (jus cogens) from which there can be no derogation even by agreement among the parties.

Third, to establish a ceasefire leaving Russians in possession of territories acquired through the illegal use of force, however worded, would eviscerate the bedrock principles of the United Nations Charter and the Charter-based international legal order.

If such a precedent were established, nations would feel free to invade other countries, and retain possession of conquered territories in “frozen conflicts” established by ceasefires.

The situation at the end of the Korean war was completely different from what such a ceasefire in Ukraine would mean today.

The “ceasefire” in Korea merely re-established the status quo ante, with the demarcation line at the 38th parallel. No territories acquired by the illegal use of force by North Korea were acknowledged in the armistice agreement. North Korea did not gain anything as a result of its aggression against South Korea.

Cognitive occlusion may be blocking Western leaders and analysts from grasping what is really at stake in the Ukraine war, and the sacrifices that may be required to save civilization from the Russian onslaught of aggression and barbarism.

China is watching. The U.S. and the West should be focused on winning China over to the defense of what we call “Western Civilization” which today, in 2025, is synonymous with universal civilization based on the United Nations Charter and international law.

That is not to say the U.S.and others should not vigorously oppose Chinese violations of international law in the South China Sea, in threatening Taiwan, in its illegal takeover of Hong Kong, or in the area of international human rights.

But it is to say that the U.S. and the West have their best chances for winning over China in this struggle between civilization and Russian barbarism by addressing their differences with China within the framework of international law and the United Nations Charter, which China has not repudiated.

China is not the greatest threat to our civilization. Russia under Putin is.

We must overcome the effects of cognitive occlusion and recognize the Russian threat for what it is, an existential threat to our current universal civilization.

FURTHER READING

1)Borja Lasheras, “La guerra de Ucrania durará; El que Putin no pudiera tomar Kiev al inicio de la invasión no ha mitigado su obsesión por el territorio. Rusia quiere la destrucción del país. El conflicto puede prolongarse al menos uno o dos años más,” El País, el 10 de julio 2022 (23:00 EDT);

2)Borja Lasheras, “The war in Ukraine will last; The fact that Putin could not take Kiev at the beginning of the invasion has not mitigated his obsession with the territory. Russia wants the destruction of the country. The conflict can last at least one or two more years,” El País, July 10, 2022 (23:00 EDT);

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James Rowles is a former Lecturer on Law at Harv Law School and professor of international law at other universities.

He studied the history of Nazi Germany at Stanford, and has studied and worked on human rights, judicial reform, and access to justice projects in many countries in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and in Afghanistan and Russia. At Harvard Law School, he taught a course on “Law, Human Rights, and the Struggle for Democracy in Latin America”.

At the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) of the OAS, he worked on human rights cases involving forced disappearances, executions, and torture in a number of authoritarian countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Recent Books by the Author

James P. Rowles, The Rape of American Democracy: Republican Actions and Democratic Failures, 2016-2021 (2024). Available on Amazon, and from IngramSpark by clicking on a link here.

James P. Rowles, Don’t Be Stupid. Pay Attention, Damn It! Advice for Undecided Voters and Voters Leaning Toward Trump (2024). Available on Amazon,and from IngramSpark by clicking on a link here.

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